So it’s that time of year again. The time when beards are grown, money is wagered, and legends are made. It’s the NHL Playoffs. If there’s a more exciting event in sports, I haven’t experienced it. Nothing else compares to the pace, drama, ferocity, and suspense which the Stanley Cup Playoffs provide us year after year. Perhaps fans of other sports would beg to disagree, but if so, I’d beg them to watch a better sport.

Since about 2004, I’ve been making NHL playoff brackets. The goal – nay, the dream – is to have a perfect bracket. It’s never happened for me to date, and the odds of it ever happening are slim. And every year it makes me try harder.

This year, I’ve gone to new lengths – almost laughable lengths – in my efforts to be right. I know from past experience that more information does not mean better decisions, and yet something compelled me to strive onward. So I have some information which, if nothing else, should be neat to look at. (Is 15 hours really worth “neat to look at?”) For now, I’m just going to lay out each series and make some picks, but I’ll be posting my crazy methodology once the playoffs are underway.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Pittsburgh versus (8) New York Islanders

It may not be a tight series, but it should be fun to watch. John Tavares has emerged as one of the top-5 forwards in the NHL, and has pulled the Islanders along with him. The only knock on Tavares on draft day was his skating, which was considered average at best. But in the past four years, Tavares’ Crosby-like work-ethic has turned that weakness into a strength. Shutting him down in a 7-game series is not possible.

But what’s truly different about the Islanders is the supporting cast. It’s no longer just Matt Moulson riding shot-gun to Tavares, but 2nd line guys like Nielsen, Bailey, and Okposo who are bringing it for New York, and providing the kind of balanced attack which saw them score 139 goals, good for 8th in the NHL. Veteran puck moving d-men like Lubomir Visnovsky and Mark Streit are also a big part of that turnaround.

But…it’s Pittsburgh. On paper, the Pens might be the best NHL team in over a decade. If you knew prior to the season that they’d have Crosby, Malkin, Iginla, Neal, Morrow, and Kunitz up front, you’d need a very good reason to pick anyone else to win it all. It just looks frightening. I didn’t even list Pascal Dupuis, since he isn’t a name that sticks out to most people, and yet he scored 20 goals. And then there’s Kris Letang, who would have been the odds-on favourite to win the Norris Trophy this year had he not missed a quarter of the season with various lower-body ailments.

In fact, the Pens won more games in overtime and regulation than any other team in the league – including Chicago – 33 in all. They beat the Islanders in 4 of 5 meetings this year, and swept one of the other Eastern Conference favourites – the Boston Bruins – 3-0. In fact, the Penguins only have a losing record against one team in East: the New Jersey Devils. And with the Devils ready to hit the golf course, it’s hard to find a team that has an obvious advantage over Crosby and Co.

If there is a weakness on this team, it’s the injury bug. Crosby probably won’t be ready for game 1 of the series due to the broken jaw he suffered on March 30th, and Malkin, Letang, and Neal have all returned just recently from their own injuries. But unless they lose all those players again, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Islanders can overcome that juggernaut.

(2) Montreal versus (7) Ottawa

Folks, this is a tight one. In a series like this, it’s hard to resist shaking your head and simply picking the favourite. But here’s how I see it shaking down.

The Habs exceeded expectations all year with strong early-season play from Carey Price and a great powerplay, led by the return of prodigal son, Andrei Markov. After several injury-plagued seasons, Markov regained his health, playing in every game this year – the first time he’s done so since ’07-’08. P.K Subban put up career numbers with 38 points in only 42 games, and the Canadians got balanced contributions from Pacioretty, Plekanec, Gionta, Ryder, Desharnais, Eller, Galchenyuk, and Gallagher.

The Sens are more or less the opposite story. With early-season injuries to their elite offensive talents – Jason Spezza, and Erik Karlsson – the Sens had to do it the hard way, grinding out 2-1 games, and picking up OT points by keeping games close. They gave up only 104 goals all season, the lowest total in the high-scoring Eastern Conference. They only allowed 20 while short-handed, and I have a feeling that the Habs, who relied heavily on their #2 ranked powerplay (42 goals on the year), will have trouble piercing their defensive front.

And then there’s Erik Karlsson. The surprising return of last year’s Norris Trophy winner wasn’t expected anytime this season after Matt Cooke’s skate severed 70% of his achilles tendon. But he returned Thursday in Washington, and posted 2 points in 27 minutes of action. He is easily the most talented offensive defenceman of his generation, with an unparalleled combination of skating, passing, shooting, and above all, vision. His return cannot be overstated for a Senators team which finished last among all playoff teams with 116 goals.

And then there’s Craig Anderson. If not for a high ankle sprain which came him out for several weeks, Anderson probably would have won the Vezina Trophy for best goaltender. His numbers are almost unfathomable: a 1.69 goals against average, and a .941 save %. He plays an aggressive game, similar to 2011 Vezina and Conn Smythe Winner Tim Thomas, minus the extreme political leanings. And with a solid and versatile group of defenders in front of him, including shut-down men like Methot, Cowen, and Phillips, who prevent high-quality chances, and puck movers in Karlsson, Gonchar, and Wiercioch, who lead the transition game from their own zone, the Senators are tough to bottle in their own zone.

Of course, if Price can regain his early-season form, then Montreal will be able to win some close games and carry the day, but if I’m betting on a goalie in this series, it’s Craig Anderson.

(3) Washington versus (6) New York Rangers

This is one of the most interesting series in the 1st round because there’s so many ways to look at it. The Rangers have Lundqvist in goal, so they should be favoured. The Caps have Ovechkin in MVP form, so they’re the favourite. The Rangers have size and grit, with Nash, Callahan, Clowe, Boyle, and Kreider, but the Caps have the skill, with Backstrom, Ribeiro, Green, Erat, and the aforementioned Ovie. Both teams were hot down the stretch.

What’s the difference maker? I don’t think it’s Washington being “hot”, because I don’t think they are. I think they’re just good. While it’s easy to point to Ovechkin’s dominance as the reason for the Caps’ turnaround – and it is a huge reason – but I think the health and play of Mike Green is just as important. Green is making people remember how we forget he’s a defenceman, and I mean that in a good way. The man has scored 10 goals in the last 18 games, as a defenceman. That’s ridiculous. With his re-emergence, their powerplay is once again deadly – they have the shooters – Ovie & Green; they have the set-up men – Backstrom and Ribeiro; and they have the net presence – Brouwer. Since they generate a lot of chances with a solid three-line attack, they draw a lot of penalties. And if you take too many penalties, your odds of winning are dismal.

In last year’s 2nd round, the Caps took the Rangers to a 7th game. The Rangers finished 1st in the East last year, while the Caps finished 7th. New York was a grinding team, and the Caps didn’t have the firepower to overcome them. But if I’m a Rangers fan, what scares me isn’t just the Caps’ offensive renaissance, but the fact that their best defensive defenceman – Marc Staal – remains sidelined with a fairly severe eye injury. Staal has resumed skating, but his vision is still blurry after taking a shot to the eye on March 5th. Girardi and McDonagh are a good defensive pairing, but the drop-off to the 2nd pairing of Del Zotto and Stralman is a huge concern.

All that being said, Nash and Stepan have been very impressive this year for the Rangers, and Richards and Callahan have picked up their play of late, so it’s not like New York can’t win this series. But I think Washington’s “hot streak” isn’t a result of a team playing above its long-term capability, but rather a sign of a team that’s found its way.

(4) Boston versus (5) Toronto

This is a strange one. If you looked at this series a month ago, it would have been a nice match-up. The Bruins are just two years removed from their Stanley Cup winning performance, and boast a solid, deep team at all positions, particularly up front. Meanwhile the Leafs were on the rise, with strong offensive performances from Kessel, Kadri, and Lupul (when healthy), and the surprising play of goaltender James Reimer.

But both teams have sputtered of late. The Bruins had a few injuries, first with Bergeron and Marchand, and more recently with Nate Horton and Jaromir Jagr. Zdeno Chara only scored 7 goals this year, and 19 points, and was on pace for his worst offensive season in over a decade. David Krejci’s offence also dryed up down the stretch, and Milan Lucic found himself a healthy scratch at one point last week.

But the Leafs’ play was on another level of bad. They averaged about 19 shots per game in their last three,  and lost 4 of 6 to end the season. They probably would have lost all 6 if not for the heroic play of Reimer, who allowed just one goal in those two wins.

All things considered, it’s hard not to pick take Boston. The Bruins won three of the four match-ups this season, and with neither team playing well, it’s hard to point to a reason why the favourite won’t win. Sorry Leafs fans, but I don’t pick Boston to win, as much as I expect Toronto to lose.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Chicago versus (8) Minnesota

There isn’t too much to say about this one. Minnesota limped into the playoffs, dropping their last home game against Edmonton, when they had the opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. It was an unimpressive performance in a long string of underwhelming play which started around the trade deadline on April 3rd. The Wild have a pretty good group of forwards, led by Mikko Koivu and Zach Parise, but their defence begins and ends with Ryan Suter – though rookie Jonas Brodin has a very bright future.

Chicago’s speed and skill will overwhelm Minnesota. Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa are as deadly a quartet as you’ll find in the NHL, and the Hawks have developed a nice supporting cast behind them, with Bickell, Kruger, Stalberg, and rookie Brandon Saad supplying a nice dose of secondary scoring. Corey Crawford and Ray Emery have been solid all year – in fact, Emery is 17-1-0 on the season. (I haven’t checked, but that must be a record). Minnesota will play hard, but I just can’t see them keeping the puck out of their net.

(2) Anaheim versus (7) Detroit

Although this isn’t like me, I just “have a feeling” about this series. Detroit won two of the three meetings this season, and lost the other game without the services of Pavel Datsyuk and Johan Franzen. Not only will those two be playing in this series, but they, along with Henrik Zetterberg, seem to have found their old form in the last 10 games. By contrast, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were their old selves in the first half of this season, but after they all but clinched a playoff spot, and pocketed some rather large contract extensions, each of them have come back down to earth. Getzlaf has also missed a few games with unspecified injuries, which is not unusual given his history in the past several years.

Overall, I’ll still give the edge on offence to Anaheim, as Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan have more finishing ability than their counterparts in Detroit, and don’t need as many chances to find the back of the net. But what I can’t get past is the indescribable play of Anaheim’s back-end, where their make-shift group of Souray, Lydman, Allen, Fowler, Lovejoy, and Sbisa, has only one high-quality NHL defenceman – Francois Beauchemin. Sbisa is probably the next-best, and is currently out of the lineup. Souray, Lydman, and Allen all lack foot seed, and Fowler isn’t known for his defensive play at this stage of his young career. I see Detroit holding the puck in the Anaheim end for long periods of play, and Anaheim running around desperately trying to get it back.

You might suggest that Detroit’s defence isn’t much better. And I don’t completely disagree. Losing Brad Stuart and Nick Lidstrom was a huge double-blow, not to mention Brian Rafalski the previous off-season. But the Wings also suffered countless injuries to the players who were supposed to fill those gaps – Smith, Quincey, and Colaiacovo all missed chunks of time. Finally, everyone on the back-end is healthy, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Wings’ play has improved of late. I also give a slight edge in goal to Detroit, as Jimmy Howard has performed well in the playoffs in the each of the past four years.

(3) Vancouver versus (6) San Jose

A rematch of the 2011 Conference Final, which the Canucks won in 5 games. While each team has declined, they still possess most of the pieces that made up those squads just two years ago. Sedin x2, Kesler, Burrows, Edler, Hamhuis, Bieksa on the one end; Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, Couture, Boyle, Vlasic, and Niemi on the other.

What’s interesting is that most people don’t see either of these teams going too far in these playoffs. I disagree. I think San Jose is underrated, and will give Vancouver all they can handle. Niemi is having a career year, and will be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. Meanwhile, Schneider had a very good year as well, so assuming he’s healthy, (he missed a game on the weekend), the goaltending should be tight in this series.

San Jose also went on a huge run after trading Clowe and Murray around the deadline- apparently no one told them that being a seller meant they couldn’t go 12-5-1 down the stretch. But Vancouver added Derek Roy at the deadline – just the injection of tenacious, offensive talent they needed – and finally, finally may have a healthy Ryan Kesler. With those two in the fold, and Mason Raymond having a good year, the Canucks have the offensive depth they lacked most of the last year, which was especially apparent in last year’s 1st round, when Daniel Sedin missed the first three games against LA (all losses). Jannik Hansen is also having a career year, and Chris Higgins has rejuvenated his career in Vancouver, establishing himself as an excellent third-liner.

While the Canucks still aren’t what they were in 2011, they still have an excellent group of top-4 defencemen, with Edler, Hamhuis, Bieksa, and Garrison all possessing some measure of of size, skating, and offensive ability. So while overall, they don’t possess the elite offensive skill of teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago, they also don’t have any significant holes to speak of. I think they will sneak by San Jose, and could make a serious run in the West.

(4) St. Louis versus (5) Los Angeles

A re-match of last year’s 2nd round match-up, which the Kings swept in 4. But don’t expect this year’s series to be so short-lived.

The Blues are more or less the same team which finished 2nd in the Western Conference last year – only they might be better. Adding Jay Bouwmeester from Calgary was huge, as it solidified their top pairing, giving Alex Pietrangelo a stable, veteran presence who can help him defend against the other team’s top players. Adding Jordan Leopold also gave them more depth on the back-end. Up front, they still don’t score as much as you’d expect, but between Perron, Oshie, Backes, Steen, McDonald, Stewart, Tarasenko, and Berglund, the talent is there. The one concern for the Blues is in goal, where de facto starter Jaro Halak has missed some time with injuries, and his back-up, Brian Elliot, has been wildly inconsistent (though quite good of late).

For their part, the Kings are also more or less the same team, but different. They’ve had great goaltending, except it’s been more Bernier than Quick. And apart from Jeff Carter, they still aren’t scoring as much as it looks like they should based on the abundance of talent they have in Kopitar, Richards, Williams, Brown, and Doughty. They’ve also missed their key shut-down tandem of Matt Greene and Willie Mitchell terribly, though Greene is almost 100% now, and Robyn Regehr – acquired from Buffalo – is almost a dead wringer for Mitchell.

The deciding factor for me is the Kings’ recent success against St. Louis. Not only did they sweep them in the playoffs last year, but they took all three games this season. It’s a case of two teams who play a very similar style – defence-first – and LA has the edge in star power both in goal, and up front. St. Louis has tons of depth, but when you’re looking at David Backes as your best forward, I’ll raise you Kopitar, Carter, and Richards, before I get to Dustin Brown, who is basically LA’s version of Backes. I think St. Louis will make this a really tough series, but if I’m putting down money, it’s on LA.

Pick Summary:

EAST

(1) Pit over (8) Nyi

(7) Ott over (2) Mtl

(3) Wsh over (6) Nyr

(4) Bos over (5) Tor

WEST

(1) Chi over (8) Min

(7) Det over (2) Ana

(3) Van over (6) Sjs

(5) Lak over (4) Stl

Calgary Flames General Manager, Jay Feaster

Most General Managers agree that the NHL Trade Deadline is the time when their peers are most prone to making mistakes. Over the years, many GM’s have been guilty of “selling the farm”, trading promising young players and draft picks for “rentals” – veterans who will only be around for the remainder of the year. One of the reasons they’re so eager is because playoff appearances are huge money makers,  since players aren’t *paid during the post-season, and ticket prices see a sizeable increase.

*Although some players have bonuses in their contracts related to playoff performance, most do not. When the season ends, so do the paycheques. (With the exception of escrow adjustments, which are paid after the season.) 

The deadline normally takes place on February 28th, but due to the compressed schedule, this year’s deadline was pushed back to April 3rd. Hockey analysts speculated that because of the shortened season, fewer teams would be out of the playoff race, and thus, fewer teams would be looking to sell, i.e trade roster players for picks and prospects. This year’s deadline was supposed to be a seller’s market.

Well, at least they were half right. The playoff race was especially tight as of April 3rd – in the West, 3 points separated 8th from 13th, while in the East, the gap between 6th and 10th was also 3 points. And because so few teams were entirely out of the playoff running, many GM’s decided to keep their rosters intact, rather than selling off veteran UFAs. But despite the shortage of sellers, some of the returns for quality players were laughable. Countless fringe NHL prospects were traded in the week leading up to the deadline, most notably in the Jarome Iginla deal, where the Flames got nothing tangible for their future hall of famer, and nine-year captain. Considering Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick will be in the 25-30 range, the odds that the Flames end up with a top-line forward or top-2 defenceman from that pick are slim.

Here’s a brief summary of the major winners and losers from the trade deadline. Following the summary is an appendix of the major acquisitions made by all the teams. 

WINNERS

New York R – If the early returns are anything to go on, the additions Glen Sather made at the deadline were pure genius. While former superstar Gaborik had only 19 points in 35 games on the year, and was clashing with Rangers’ coach John Tortorella, new additions Ryane Clowe and Derick Brassard collectively gathered 7 points in their Rangers’ debut. Furthermore, they added another piece to their defence corps with the smooth skating John Moore, and added toughness with Derek Dorsett (week-to-week with a broken collarbone). The cherry on top is that Gaborik’s $7.5M contract is off the books for next year, giving them ample room to re-sign Clowe and make other additions too.  

St. Louis – Talk about addressing a need. With a gaping hole on defence, the Blues went out and acquired 2002, 3rd overall pick Jay Bouwmeester. Jay Bo is exactly what this team needs – a steady, two-way defenceman who can play big minutes in every situation. St. Louis already has their franchise defenceman in Alex Pietrangelo, so Bouwmeester can ride shotgun as that #2 guy, which he’s more suited to. And for those who claim that his $6.68M contract makes him a bad addition, there’s the case of Brian Campbell – who was much maligned in Chicago because of his $7M contract, and then resurrected himself in Florida with a 53-point season – the most of any non-Karlssonian in 2012. Unlike Campbell, Bouwmeester doesn’t need to be flashy; he is simply a solid veteran who will pair with Pietrangelo or Shattenkirk and help take this team to the next level. Plus, with $25M in cap room for next year, Bouwmeester’s salary won’t break the bank. The Blues also added Jordan Leopold from Buffalo, and although they overpaid with a 2nd round pick, he provides further depth. 

Nashville – Acquired the only “blue-chip” prospect of the week in Filip Forsberg, giving up long-time Preds forward Martin Erat in order to do so. (As well as a decent prospect in Michael Latta). Although Erat was one of the best offensive players in Nashville over the last 7 years, Forsberg is a potential 1st line forward – something Nashville hasn’t had since Paul Kariya left in 2007. What makes the move all the more impressive is that Erat had quietly asked Nashville GM David Poile for a trade; if the league knew that Erat wanted out, it would have decreased his trade value. Instead, Poile acted quickly, and got a fantastic return before the situation became a distraction.

San Jose – Managed to collect as many as four 2nd round picks (two are conditional), as well as 3rd and 4th rounders for players with expiring contracts. Also added a nice depth forward in Torres for a reasonable price (3rd rd pick). GM Doug Wilson is going a good job of rebuilding on the fly, and although he didn’t get any prized prospects or first round picks, don’t underestimate the promise of a 2nd rounder. From 2001-2010, the following players were drafted in the 2nd round: Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, David Backes, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Mike Ribeiro, Paul Stastny, Dave Bolland, Milan Lucic, Mike Cammalleri, Ryan O’Reilly, Derek Stepan, P.K Subban, Alex Goligoski, Matt Carle, Justin Faulk, Justin Schultz, Slava Voynov, Wayne Simmonds, Loui Eriksson, and James Neal. Nice group of skaters.

Columbus – New GM Jarmo Kekalainen means business. He said he would add at the deadline, and he made the biggest splash of the day, adding struggling superstar Marian Gaborik. Although Gaborik wasn’t producing in New York, a change of scenery could do wonders for him. And based on his days on the formerly defence-first Minnesota Wild, he can produce anywhere when he is happy & healthy. Although Kekalainen gave New York a nice return, Brassard wasn’t living up to his potential in Columbus, and Moore was somewhat redundant with other young, smooth d-men in the fold, like Tim Erixon, and last year’s 2nd overall pick, Ryan Murray. With Columbus surging of late, I think this was a risk worth taking, as it sends a message to the players and the rest of the league that management in Columbus is serious about winning. They also retained all three 1st round picks in the upcoming draft, so it’s not like Kekalainen sold the farm.

Minnesota – The acquisition of Jason Pominville cements the Wild as a major player in the Western Conference in the years to come. Already boasting the likes of Parise, Suter, and Koivu, the Wild now have another talented, multi-faceted player with great character and leadership qualities. They gave up a lot of young assets to get him, but their system remains chalked full of talented prospects, since they didn’t give up any of their best in the deal. (i.e Granlund, Coyle, Zucker.) While the trade was a good one for Minnesota, the one curious aspect is that the Wild have a much greater need on defence than at forward. My only guess is that the outlandish returns for defenders like Murray, Regehr, and Leopold made them look for a better value proposition. 

Dallas – GM Joe Nieuwendyk is learning from his mistakes. After the misguided decision to hold onto Brad Richards in 2011 – whom he eventually lost for nothing – Nieuwendyk divested of all of his major UFAs, including Jaromir Jagr, Derek Roy, and captain Brenden Morrow. In return, he collected two high draft picks and 2 solid prospects – far more than Calgary got for Bouwmeester and Iginla. Dallas’ window of opportunity is years away – in the tightly contested Western Conference, the Stars aren’t likely to make a long playoff run. Furthermore, the holes left by those veterans allowed Nieuwendyk to give his best young players a chance, and thus far they have performed brilliantly, helping the Stars win five in a row.

Ottawa & Tampa Bay – In the short-term, both teams got what they needed. Tampa Bay had an obvious need for goaltending, and 6’7 Ben Bishop certainly fits the bill. Plus Ottawa’s crease was full, with incumbent starter Craig Anderson and heir apparent Robin Lehner. Similarly, Ottawa had a need for a creative, top-6 winger, and Conacher was expendable for Tampa, with Stamkos, St. Louis, and Purcell leading an already impressive attack, and a number of promising young forwards on the way, including Killorn, Panik, Palat, Johnson, and Connolly. It’s always tough to evaluate a goalie-for-player trade, but some recent examples include:

Luongo (Fla) for Bertuzzi (Van) – goalie won handily

Vermette (Ott) for Leclaire (Cbj) – player won handily

Halak (Mtl) for Eller (Stl) – jury’s still out

My best guess is that both players will be good with their new teams, though Bishop will have the tougher time repeating his success, as Tampa is looking more and more like the goalie carousel in Philadelphia.  

JURY’S OUT

Buffalo – The Sabres entered rebuild mode this week, trading Jordan Leopold, Robyn Regehr, and team captain Jason Pominville for a collection of picks and prospects. The returns on Leopold and Regehr were excellent, getting three picks in the 2nd round for players with expiring contracts who hadn’t performed to their previously established levels of ability. But the big move was Pominville – a long-time Sabre who still had another year remaining on his contract. In return, they received a decent goaltending prospect (Matt Hackett), a decent forward prospect (Johan Larsson), a 1st round pick in 2013, and a 2nd round pick in 2014. Ultimately, the success of that trade will depend on the draft picks, as neither Hackett nor Larsson is likely to make as big an impact as Pominville. But in trading their captain, the Sabres also made a place for younger players like Tyler Ennis, Cody Hodgson, and Tyler Myers – players upon whom the Sabres’ future success depends heavily.

Washington – Got a good player in Erat, but gave up a great prospect in Forsberg. While some people see this in the same light as Kessel-Seguin, I think it could work out okay for Washington. Washington’s window to compete is now, as core players like Ovechkin, Green, Laich, and Backstrom are in their mid-to-late 20′s, and may be in decline by the time Forsberg reaches his prime in 3-5 years. Erat will add scoring depth, which they’ve lacked in recent years, and may help them to make a run in the next couple of years, well before Forsberg would have been ready for a starring role. They also picked up Michael Latta – a decent offensive prospect with good size, who could take on a 3rd line role in the future. All that being said, this is a big risk, and many saw it as a desperation move.

Boston – Jaromir Jagr will help them, but they’ll give up a 1st round pick should they reach the conference finals. (2nd round pick if not). Not poor value, but they were the 2nd best team in the East before Jagr, and will likely remain the 2nd best team in the East with him. (Though recent injuries to Bergeron and Marchand hurt them significantly). They also had a need on defence for a true powerplay quarterback, and Wade Redden, whom they brought over for a 7th round pick, is not the answer.

Los Angeles – Overpaid for Regehr with two 2nd round picks, but filled the need for a solid defender with the injuries to Willie Mitchell and Matt Greene.

Phoenix – Gave up a few pending UFAs (Torres, Lombardi, Sullivan) for a prospect and picks. Not big moves, but good asset management. 

LOSERS

Vancouver – Were in on Clowe but lost out to New York. Didn’t deal Roberto Luongo, and maintain that distraction. If they can’t re-sign Derek Roy, then they overpaid for him. (2nd round pick and prospect defenceman Kevin Connaughton). With the Sedins starting a moderate decline, Kesler often hurt, a weak prospect system, and a dearth of scoring talent on the wings, I think Vancouver’s opportunity to contend has already passed them by. I don’t see them catching up to Chicago or Los Angeles, and Anaheim, St. Louis, and Minnesota are also on the rise. They’re definitely still capable of beating anyone, but good luck winning three rounds against those teams.

Pittsburgh – Although they added three forwards, and one slow-footed, physical defenceman, their big need was for a two-way defender. With Martin on the IR, and Letang in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries, they have no fall-back options on the blueline. The moves are looking better of late due to the unexpected injuries to Sidney Crosby and James Neal, but I still think that Chero should have saved the bullets he used on either Iginla or Morrow to go after a defenceman. 

Calgary – I have no issue with blowing things up, but they got pathetic returns for Iginla and Bouwmeester. Plus the scortched-earth strategy is risky – although it was employed with great success in Chicago and Pittsburgh in the mid-2000’s, it was an utter failure in Florida and Columbus just prior to that. Rebuilding this team will take time, and with the Flames currently a laughing stock in the league, you can bet that Jay Feaster will not be there to see it through.

DEADLINE DAY APPENDIX – MAJOR ACQUISITIONS ONLY

SELLERS

Nashville

(-)Erat, Latta

(+)Forsberg

San Jose

(–)Clowe, Murray, Handzus, 3rd rd ’13, 7th rd ‘13

(+)Torres, Hannan, two 2nd round picks in 2013; 3rd+4th round picks in 2013; two conditional 2nd round picks in 2014

Buffalo

(-)Pominville, Leopold, Regehr

(+)Hackett, Larsson, 1st round pick in 2013, 2nd round pick in 2013, conditional 5th round pick in 2013, two 2nd round picks in 2014, 2nd round pick in 2015

Dallas

(-)Morrow, Jagr, Roy, 3rd round pick in 2013

(+)J.Morrow, conditional 1st round pick in 2013, Connaughton, 2nd+5th round picks in 2013, 2 marginal prospects

Calgary

(-)Iginla, Bouwmeester, Comeau

(+)two 1st round picks in 2013, 4 marginal prospects, 5th round pick in 2013

Phoenix

(-)Torres, Lombardi, Sullivan

(+)3rd+7th round picks in 2013; MacMillan

BUYERS

New York R

(+)Clowe, Brassard, Moore, Dorsett

(-)Gaborik, 2nd+3rd round picks in 2013; conditional 2nd in 2014

St. Louis

(+)Bouwmeester, Leopold

(-)1st, 2nd, 5th round picks in 2013; conditional 5th rd pick in 2013; 2 marginal prospects

Minnesota

(+)Pominville, 4th rd ‘14

(-)Hackett, Larsson, 1st round pick in 2013, 2nd round pick in 2014

Boston

(+)Jagr, Redden

(-) Conditional 1st round pick in 2013 7th round pick in 2014

Pittsburgh

(+)Iginla, B.Morrow, Murray, Jokinen, 3rd rd ‘13

(-)J.Morrow, 1st, 2nd, 5th, round picks in 2013; conditional 6th rd pick in 2013; conditional 2nd rd pick in 2014; 2 marginal prospects

Washington

(+)Erat, Latta

(-)Forsberg

Los Angeles

(+)Regehr

(-)2nd round pick in 2014, 2nd round pick in 2015

Columbus

(+)Gaborik, Comeau, 3rd round pick in 2013, 2 prospects

(-)Brassard, Moore, Dorsett, Mason, 5th+6th round picks in 2013

Ottawa/Tampa Bay

Bishop to Tampa for Conacher +4th round pick in 2013 

I don’t have as much time as I’d like to elaborate on these picks, but I’m morally obligated to make them prior to any games beginning, so here they are. I’ll be doing a post-mortem on round 1, as well as a more detailed look at the rest of the playoffs, so stay tuned.

(If you’re up for a laugh, check out my 1st round playoff picks. I went 3/8! Bear in mind that I am not always  this foolish – I was 7/8 last year, and 6/8 the year before.)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(2) St. Louis vs (8) Los Angeles

Winner: Los Angeles

Why: The Blues matched up really well against San Jose – bigger, faster, younger, and better goaltending. But the same can’t be said against LA. The Kings have tons of size up front – Kopitar, Carter, Brown, Penner, King, and Nolan – and  lots of speed between Richards, Williams, Lewis, Richardson, Stoll, as well as the aforementioned Carter and Brown. Furthermore, Jonathan Quick is about as good a goalie as you’ll find. Because both of these teams are so good – and so evenly matched – it may come down to who gets a break in a key game 4/5. And when the game is tight, I like to have Mike Richards on my side.

(3) Phoenix vs (4) Nashville

Winner: Nashville

Why: Speaking of evenly matched, how about Phoenix and Nashville. Great goaltending, tight defensive systems, very strong bluelines, and – at least on paper – a bit challenged offensively. The reason I like Nashville is that they have a bit more talent up front than in the past, adding a game-breaker like Alex Radulov, which helps bring more out of other skilled players like Erat and the Kostitsyn’s. And while Nashville’s two-way centres like Fisher and Legwand are countered by Phoenix’s Hanzel, Vermette, and Langkow, I prefer Nashville’s depth guys better – Gaustad, Halischuk, Bourque, Spaling -  to the players in Phoenix’s bottom-6 like Pyatt, Gordon, Brule, and Chipchura. Phoenix has been resilient all year so don’t count them out, but I think Nashville – for probably the first time in their history – has just a little more star power.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) New York vs (7) Washington

Winner: New York

Why: This one is a struggle to explain, because I actually think that Washington is probably a better team from the goal out, but I like the Rangers to come through. Yes, Braden Holtby was majestic against the Bruins, and out-dueled last year’s Vezina and Conn Smythe winner Tim Thomas, but I don’t think lightning will strike twice. I’ve seen this story before, where the underdog goalie outplays the heavily favoured rival goalie, and it usually doesn’t last. In 2004 when Philly’s Robert Esche played unexpectedly well against New Jersey’s legend Martin Brodeur and forced them out in the 1st round. But he got worse in each round that followed, eventually losing to Tampa Bay in the Conference Finals. Same thing in 2010, when Brian Boucher was significantly better than Brodeur in a 5-game series win by Philadelphia. Boucher was terrible in the next round against Boston, before getting hurt and making way for Michael Leighton’s unexpected heroics (which again only lasted for about 1 round). I’m not saying that Holtby isn’t a good goalie, but there were no expectations of him beating the Bruins; now that they’re into the 2nd round, guess what: expectations.

And then there’s Henrik Lundqvist – the consensus best goalie in the world, and one with a history of success against Washington. He nearly stole their 1st round series in 2009 – a time when the Caps were a far more dangerous team offensively. The Rangers took a 3-1 series lead against the heavily favoured Capitals squad, solely due to the play of Lundqvist, before succumbing to the Caps’ then-dynamic attack. To my eye, Washington is no longer the same team, and though I think the series will be close, I like New York to once again squeak it out.

(5) Philadelphia vs (6) New Jersey

Winner: Philadelphia

Why: I think this series will be very interesting. Just like Washington is no longer the offensive juggernaut they once were, New Jersey is no longer the defensively stifling, systems-oriented team of their past. They actually have very good offensive depth up front with the likes of Parise, Kovalchuk, Elias, Zajac, Henrique, Clarkson, Zubrus, and Sykora, as well as a little more on the back-end with the deadline-day addition of Marek Zidlicky. In some ways, this will present a greater challenge to Philadelphia, whose defence is banged up with injuries to Grossman and Meszaros, and of course Chris Pronger. While Coburn and Timonen were matched up against Malkin and Neal, leaving only two truly dangerous Pens in the rest of their lineup (Staal and Crosby, the latter of which didn’t look right for most of the series), Philly’s depleted blueline will now need to stop the Elias and Henrique lines, and hope that Timonen and Coburn can shut-down the ever dangerous Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk line.

All that being said, I don’t think New Jersey will win the series. Philly just has too much skill, and different types of players that complement each other. Small, quick, skilled forwards like Briere and Read mixed in with big, skilled forwards like Voracek and Jagr; gritty guys Hartnell, Schenn, and Simmonds; two-way players like Couturier and Talbot; and then there’s the guy that stirs the drink – a man whom Flyers coach Peter Laviolette boastfully called “the best player in the world” – # 28, Claude Giroux. I’ve  watched Giroux for years, from his days in Gatineau of the QMJHL, when he barely made the team as an undrafted 17-year-old,  to his play in the 2008 WJC for Team Canada, his quick 33-game transition through the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, and now his gradual but steady ascent to the top of the NHL’s elite. He was very noticeable in his first-ever NHL playoff series in 2009, playing against the eventual champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

[youtube cFsOqlefahA]

(Go to 2:57 to see Giroux’s short-handed magic)

He was instrumental the following year in the Flyers’ unexpected run to the Stanley Cup final, scoring 10 goals (2nd) and 21 points (3rd) on his team in scoring. He was the 3rd most dominant forward in the NHL during the season, behind only Malkin and Stamkos, and during this year’s playoffs, he’s taken it to a whole new level, displaying a combination of speed, skill, grit, vision, and pure passion that very few players will ever possess.

I don’t think New Jersey will be able to stop him.

WARNING: The following hockey preview contains levels of detail that may offend casual hockey fans. Viewer discretion is advised.

I posted my picks yesterday, along with brief notes about what to expect in each series, but I didn’t go into much detail on why I was picking a certain team. The reality is that there are a million reasons why you could pick any given team at any particular time – you think a goalie will steal the series; a star player will exert his will upon the series; an inexperienced team will collapse, etc. Well this is my blueprint for how I decided on my picks.

First, let me fill you in on my recent track record. Here’s what I picked last year:

In the East, I went 4-for-4, picking:

(1) Was over (8) Nyr

(2) Phi over (7) Buf

(3) Bos over (6) Mtl

(5) Tby over (4) Pit

In the West, 3-for-4:

(1) Van over (8) Chi

(Sjs ) over (7) Lak

(Det) over (6) Phx

Like most people, my mistake was in picking (4) Anaheim over (5) Nashville, though that wasn’t really an upset considering both teams had 99 points. Many fans were still enamored with Anaheim after their late season run, and their somewhat recent cup victory, but in reality, most of 2007 team was long gone.

In 2010, I went 6-for-8, as per below:

East
(1) Washington vs (8) Montreal
Prediction: Washington (MONTREAL WON)
Synopsis: Jaroslav Halak thought he was Patrick Roy. And for 14 games, he was. (Halak also upset Pittsburgh in the 2^nd round, with some help from Mike Cammalleri.)

(2) New Jersey vs (7) Philadelphia
Prediction: New Jersey (PHILADELPHIA WON)
Synopsis: In addition to the prediction, I made the comment “if (Brian) Boucher plays 4 good games, Philadelphia will win” followed by “doubtful” in brackets. Boucher completely outplayed future Hall-of-Famer, Martin Brodeur, and Philly won easily.

(3) Buffalo vs (6) Boston
Prediction: Boston (Correct)
(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Ottawa
Prediction: Pittsburgh (Correct)

West
(1) San Jose vs (8) Colorado
Prediction: San Jose (Correct)
(2) Chicago vs (7) Nashville
Prediction: Chicago (Correct)
(3) Vancouver vs (6) Los Angeles
Prediction: Vancouver (Correct)

(4) Phoenix vs (5) Detroit
Prediction: Detroit (Correct)

—————————————-

What did I learn?

Of the 3 that I picked incorrectly, the biggest difference in each series was goaltending. Halak stood on his head, Boucher outdueled Brodeur, and Rinne was (and is) way better than the unfortunate combo of Ray Emery and Dan Ellis.

Now that isn’t to say that the team with the best goalie always wins, as a team might be otherwise overmatched – a pro pos, an offensively potent Philadelphia squad still managed to overwhelm Buffalo last year in the 1^st round, despite using 3 rather poor goaltenders in the series (Bobrovsky, Boucher, and even Leighton), and playing against clutch Buffalo’s franchise goaltender, Ryan Miller. However, when two teams are somewhat evenly matched, a big gap between goalies creates a big uphill climb for the team with sub-par tending.

Looking at things like the “goaltending gap” begs another question: what factors determine who wins a series, and how should they be weighted? Though hockey doesn’t have the statistical complexity of baseball, there are more than enough figures out there to support almost any outcome. For the sake of simplicity, I rely on the following three-factor model:

(1)   Scoring

(2)   Goaltending

(3)   Defensive play

Then I allot a value to each category, using a 3-point scale:

“3” is elite

“2” is adequate

“1” is unacceptable

Notes:

(1)   This rating scale holds teams to a higher standard, i.e an “adequate” defence isn’t average league-wide, but rather average in comparison to potential playoff opponents. Hence the reason why a team could be “unacceptable” in some respect, yet still make the playoffs; being “unacceptable” in some respect will ultimately prevent that team from experiencing sustained playoff success, because eventually they’ll meet a more well-rounded team which can and will exploit their weakness.

(2)   Also, “scoring” doesn’t simply mean forwards, and “defensive play” doesn’t just relate to defensemen. Erik Karlsson generates a ton of offense from the blueline for Ottawa despite being a defenceman, while the Blues and Rangers stifle their opposition by playing excellent “team defense” which starts in the neutral zone with the forwards.

Prioritizing the Factors

Of the three categories, I’d say that scoring is the single most important ingredient. While great goaltending can help compensate for an average defence, and vice versa, neither will generate offence. And no post-lockout team has won the Stanley Cup without being in the top-8 in league scoring. However, a few teams (Detroit ‘08 – Osgood and Chicago ’10 – Niemi), have won the cup without the help of a really good goalie. Each goalie made “timely saves”, but neither was considered above average compared to their goaltending peers league-wide. With respect to defensive play, Carolina managed to win the cup in 2006 with a deep and potent offensive attack and money goaltending, but their defensive play was at best average by playoff standards.

The salary cap has definitely increased parity in the league to the point where no team is elite in every category. In the past, teams like Detroit had a Hall of Famer at every position – Yzerman, Shanahan, and Fedorov up front; Lidstrom and Chelios, and Dominik Hasek in goal (at least in ’02). Similarly, Colorado had forwards like Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg, Adam Foote and Rob Blake on D, and Patrick Roy guarding the crease.

These days, cup-worthy teams are usually very strong in 2 areas, and competent in the other, but rarely is a team dominant in every aspect of play. By this rating scale, cup contenders usually score around 7 or 8. In my opinion – and all of this is heavily opinion-based – here’s how I’d rank this year’s playoff teams:

I did rankings using this general concept last year for each playoff team, and awarded the highest ranking to the Boston Bruins. Then – oddly – I decided NOT to pick Boston, because I had this “feeling” about Philadelphia. Now either I’m completely crazy, OR this simplistic ranking system isn’t the be-all, end-all – but rather just one of many tools.

For those that like a more objective approach, you may appreciate the following. I went back and looked at the results of every playoff series from 2010 and 2011, and looked at two variables: a team’s place in the standings, and the results of the season series. That gives you a few different possibilities – you could finish higher in the standings, win the season series, both, or neither. An additional variable is that the season series may have been tied. It gets a little convoluted, so I’ll just give you the most striking points:

• I looked at 28 series’ in the past two playoff years, not including the finals, since teams from opposing conferences only play about once a year (negating the “season series” effect)
•  11/28 season series’ ended up tied, so only 17 match-ups had a decisive victor (hence why some stats are out of 17)
• The higher seed won 17/28 meetings, meaning the lower seed went 11-17
• The winner of the season series won 12/17, meaning the loser went 5-12 (Regardless of seeding)
• Teams which finished higher in the standings AND won the season series won 15/17 meetings, meaning a true underdog won only twice

The only teams to upset the trend were Montreal (2010), who finished 13 points below Pittsburgh, lost the season series 3-1, and yet still managed the upset in the 2^nd round; and Tampa Bay (2011), who finished 5 points below Washington, and lost the season series 2-4, yet swept the Caps in the 2^nd round last year.

If the past two years are representative (I’ll have to tally up 2006-2009 at some point), it seems that upsets don’t occur as frequently as the media might lead you to believe. I think people tend to overvalue the importance of seeding, and undervalue the significance of the season series victor. For instance, in 2010, Boston (ranked 6^th) and Philadelphia (7^th) both pulled off “upsets” – over Buffalo and New Jersey respectively. But after looking at this data, I’d contend that neither was truly an underdog. Boston beat Buffalo 4-2 in the season series, while Philadelphia owned New Jersey, winning 5/6. The very fact that the winner of the season series won 12/17 match-ups in the past two years tells me that seeding isn’t the most important factor. While a team may be flawed, and not finish really high in the standings, they may match-up well with a certain team, as evidenced by their record in the season series. So next time you’re picking winners and losers, take a closer look at what happened during the regular season, rather than just looking at the standings.

Other Notes:

Speaking of the standings, I’ve taught myself not to place too much importance on ordinal rankings either. Sometimes we look at 2 versus 7 and think the teams are worlds apart because there’s a difference of “5” – but in reality, the team ranked 2^nd may only have won 2 more games in regulation/OT during the season, as is the case in the Boston-Washington match-up. (Boston won 40 games in regulation/OT this year; Washington 38).

Similarly, I don’t care about percentages when it comes to the powerplay and penalty kill. Here’s an example to illustrate:

Team A scored on 25% of powerplays – they scored 50 goals on 200 opporunities

Team B scored on 20% of powerplays – they scored 60 goals on 300 opportunities

Whose powerplay helps them more? Well, team A’s is 5% more efficient, which seems preferable, but Team B actually scored more goals on the PP. Now you could say that, given an even number of opportunities in the future, Team A DOES have a better powerplay – but the very fact that Team B got so many more opportunities implies that they probably generate more scoring chances and draw more penalties – a probability that would be completely ignored by simply looking at the percentage rate. Using a real example, Philadelphia’s powerplay was ranked only 6^th in the league at 19.8%, but they actually led the NHL in powerplay goals with 66 – 9 more than the next closest team.

And this point is even more relevant when looking at the penalty kill: would it really matter that a team’s pk is around the league average (percentage basis) if they allowed the most powerplay goals? No, because that means they take far more penalties than most other teams, and even if they do kill off a decent percentage of those calls, they’re not only getting scored on more often in a game, but they’re losing time they could be playing at even-strength, or on their own man advantage. Using Philadelphia again, their pk was ranked 17^th at 81.8%, but they actually gave up the second most powerplay goals in the league (second only to Columbus, who finished dead last) because they led the league in the number of times they were shorthanded.

Now I do admit that I sometimes just get “a feeling” about certain teams and match-ups, like St. Louis versus San Jose this year. In that case, I think the inexperience of St. Louis could factor in if things don’t go their way, because they may not be prepared to handle the emotional rigors of playoff hockey like a veteran team could. But I suppose even this feeling is really just more data that can be quantified, as a simple spreadsheet of the teams’ age and playoff experience would solve the matter.

As I said to begin, there are miles of data everywhere you look – it’s knowing what information is useful, and what should be cast aside. And ultimately, since hockey is a sport, played for 60 minutes at a time, on a sheet of ice, using a round disc 3 inches in diameter, by beings who let emotion override reason at the flip of a hat – you have to allow for some randomness.

It’s been a long time. I know why I haven’t written in so long, and it’s because when I do, it takes, FOREVER. but I hope you enjoy the fruits of my labour with the following two-part series. Today, I break down the series’ in brief, along with my picks for the entire playoff season. Tomorrow, I go into further detail and tell you the rationale behind my thinking. Without further ado, here is my 2012 playoff preview.

Western Conference

(1) Vancouver vs (8) Los Angeles

Season Series: 2-1-1 Vancouver (2-2-0 LA)

Legend:

OT=overtime/shootout losses | ROW=regulation/overtime wins

GF=goals for | GA=goals against | GD=goal differential

ESF=even-strength goals for | ESA=even-strength goals against

PPF=power play goals for | PPA=power play goals against

—————————————————————————–

The last time these teams met in the playoffs was in 2009-2010, with Vancouver winning in 6 games. However, prior to game 5, the teams played four hard-fought games, and the series was tied at 2-all. The Sedins’ took over a bit in the final two games, but many people were impressed with the Kings’ play and saw them as a team on the rise. Expectations were high this year in LA after an off-season that saw them acquire Mike Richards from Philadelphia, but the season didn’t go as planned.

A quick look at the numbers tells us that Vancouver is a pretty heavy favourite here, but by no means does that mean this series will be easy. Vancouver outscored LA by 55 goals this season, and boasts a great goaltending tandem with maligned but talented Roberto Luongo and young star Cory Schneider. And while they may not be quite as deep on defence as they were last season (losing Christian Ehrhoff in free agency hurts their powerplay), this team doesn’t have any obvious holes. They have a good mix of size, skill, and speed, good special teams, and plenty of playoff experience.

While LA certainly has talent, they struggled all year long to score goals. Players like Mike Richards and Drew Doughty nearly equaled career lows from their rookie seasons, and no one outperformed expectations offensively. Yet many observers think this team is built for the playoffs, with plenty of size and skill up front with Carter and Kopitar, and gritty leaders like Richards and Brown. Despite a poor season, Drew Doughty remains a dynamic presence on the back-end. And then there’s the x-factor in goaltender Jonathan Quick – a surefire Vezina Trophy candidate who posted 10 shutouts this season.

Judging by the results of the season, there’s no question that Vancouver is a far better team. But in a short best-of-7 series, all it would take is for a few Kings forwards to find their groove, and for Jonathan Quick to maintain his stellar play from the regular season. I’d be shocked if this series went fewer than 6 games, and expect that a few games will be decided in overtime.

Top-10 Scorers

(2) St. Louis vs (7) San Jose

Season Series: 4-0-0 Stl

A clash between the young upstarts and the grizzled veterans. St. Louis is one of the youngest teams in the league, and virtually all their keys players are mid-20’s or younger. In fact, only two of their top-10 scorers are over 30, and both goalies are just 26 – virtual babies in goalie terms. After starting the season 6-7, St. Louis fired Head Coach Davis Payne and replaced him with veteran bench boss Ken Hitchcock. All Hitchcock did was guide the team to a 43-15-11 record – good for 3^rd place in the NHL – and created a stifling defensive system, allowing the fewest goals in the entire league.

And then there’s the San Jose Sharks. After two straight Conference Final appearances (where they lost to Chicago in 4 straight, and Vancouver in 5), the Sharks looked poised to take the next step after acquiring a top-flight defenceman in Brent Burns to round out their roster. Instead, they took a massive step back, barely making the playoffs, and looking about as dysfunctional as any team league-wide. No team has been more disappointing, as the Sharks can’t even point to injury problems this season, unlike other pre-season favourites like Buffalo, Washington, and Los Angeles.

But despite the disparity in their regular season stats, I’d be shocked if this series was quick. San Jose has a history of being a last-minute team, waiting till crunch time to really bring their A-game. In 2008, they went down 3-games-to-none in the 2^nd round against Dallas, but nearly came all the way back, losing in a game 6 triple-OT thriller. In 2010 they almost went down 2-games-to-none in the 1^st round against Colorado, but Joe Pavelski scored with 32 seconds left and the Sharks won game 2 in OT, eventually taking the series in 6. Last season they got down 4-0 in game 3 against LA but then stormed back to win 6-5 in OT, a huge turning point in the series. And this season, when it looked like they’d miss the playoffs, they won 7 of their last 9 to sneak into 7^th. Looking at their top-8 scorers, it’s hard to imagine that this team finished 7^th, with former Canadian Olympians in Thornton, Marleau, and Boyle, US Olympian Joe Pavelski, young star Logan Couture, and other talented players like Brent Burns, Ryane Clowe, and Martin Havlat.

While St. Louis is certainly favoured after posting 11 more regulation wins and taking the season series 4-0, I think there’s a definite possibility that an upset is brewing. It’s always interesting when a young, inexperienced team plays an experienced veteran group, because emotions always run high in playoffs, and momentum swings can have a more pronounced effect on a younger group. Ultimately it may come down to whichever goaltender plays better, and St. Louis should have an advantage, as Halak and Elliot have been great all year, while Antti Niemi has been fairly inconsistent. Niemi is a cup winner though, and played very well in the 2^nd round last year against Detroit, so he has proven that he can raise his level.

Top-10 Scorers

(3) Phoenix vs (6) Chicago

Season Series: 3-1-0 Phx (1-2-1 Chi)

Former Stanley Cup champs versus the perennial underdogs. This series reminds me a lot of Anaheim-Nashville from last season – a recent cup winner with high-end offensive talent against a defensively conscious, depth-based group. The big mistake from last year was thinking that Ray Emery could come close to beating Pekka Rinne – in the end the gap in goaltending was just too great. The same could be said this year, as Corey Crawford has been inconsistent for Chicago, while Mike Smith has put together a near-Vezina quality season in Phoenix.

All that being said, I don’t think Phoenix is as good a team as Nashville. Smith is no Pekka Rinne, and there’s no Weber-Suter tandem in Phoenix either. Meanwhile, Chicago is a more well-rounded team than Anaheim, with great defencemen like Keith and Seabrook on the back-end (which Anaheim lacked), and more offensive depth beyond the top few guys. Furthermore, apart from losing Brian Campbell (who was vastly underutilized), Chicago is virtually the same team as last year. And lest we forget, Chicago nearly staged a historic comeback against the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in round 1 – losing in OT in game 7, after being down 3-0 in the series.

Phoenix’s one saving grace is that Jonathan Toews’ status is still up in the air after missing the past 2 months with a concussion. But it looks like Toews is on the road to recovery and should make an appearance in the series.

Top-10 Scorers

(4) Nashville vs (5) Detroit

Season Series: 3-3-0

The fact that these two teams are meeting in the first round is nothing if not unfortunate. This series could easily be a Conference Final instead of a 1^st round match-up, but instead, we have the pleasure of watching two great teams go toe-to-toe right off the hop.

But it also makes predictions difficult. Detroit still boasts the usual suspects – Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Lidstrom – but they’re all a bit long in the tooth now. Datsyuk is nearing 34, Zetterberg 32, Franzen 33, and Lidstrom is weeks away from turning 42 years of age. When they’re fresh and healthy, they can still light up the scoreboard as well as any team in the league, but all too often teammates are looking around the dressing room and finding one or more of those guys are watching from the press box.

Meanwhile Nashville has the same cast of hard-working, two-way forwards, along with the league’s best defensive pairing in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, and last year’s Vezina runner-up Pekka Rinne. But to their opponents’ dismay, they’ve been given an offensive spark with the return of the world’s “best player not playing in the NHL” – Russian phenom Alexander Radulov. Radulov has been the MVP of Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) two of the last three seasons, and has shown flashes of brilliance in the 9 games since his return to the NHL. If Radulov can harness his potential, his offensive contributions could be enough to take Nashville to the next level and make their first deep run at the Stanley Cup.

But ultimately, this series is a coin flip. If these teams were meeting in the 2^nd or 3^rd round, I’d have no qualms with taking Nashville, since Detroit’s aging group has been unable to sustain a long playoff run since 2009. (They’ve been eliminated in the 2^nd round two years straight). But in a first round match-up, the Wings are as dangerous as anyone. Pekka Rinne will need to be the better goalie in order for Nashville to move on, and forwards like Radulov, Erat, and Hornqvist will need to score big goals.

Top-10 Scorers

Eastern Conference

(1) New York (Rangers) vs. (8) Ottawa

Season Series: 3-1 Ottawa (1-2-1 Nyr)

The tagline of this series is offence versus defence. All Ottawa knows how to do is score, meaning they rely heavily on goaltender Craig Anderson to bail them out of tough situations. Meanwhile New York plays a highly defensive style, and has their franchise player in net with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. This will be an interesting series to watch, as Ottawa will try to dictate play with their up-tempo offence, while New York will try to slow down the pace with a relentless forecheck, neutral zone trap, and blocking a million shots in their own zone.

Ottawa’s gameplan is very simple. Put the puck in the hands of Erik Karlsson, and let him distribute to Spezza, Michalek and Alfredsson. Beyond the top-4, there isn’t much to be frightened of, though Foligno and Turris are no slouches up front.

The question for me isn’t whether New York’s defence stop Ottawa’s offence – Ottawa will score their fair share. However, Ottawa can tighten up enough to stop New York? Ottawa’s defence was rather porous all year, giving up the most goals (240) of any playoff team. Meanwhile New York produced a rather average offensive output, but does have star power up front with Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and the surprising Ryan Callahan. The Rangers also have secondary scoring with Stepan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, and Hagelin, and I just don’t think that Ottawa can match their depth.

Ottawa did win the season series 3-1, so by no means is this series a foregone conclusion, but come playoff time, goals are always much harder to come by. If Ottawa’s offence dries up even a bit, they’ll have a lot of trouble beating the Rangers in tight games.

Top-10 Scorers

(2) Boston vs (7) Washington

Season Series: 3-1-0 Was (1-2-1 Bos)

This series might not be close, but it could still be interesting. We all know how completely disappointing the Capitals were this year, but some of us still remember their 7-0 start to the year, which included a 7-1 win over Detroit. Then Mike Green got hurt, and everything went downhill from there. Ovechkin slumped for about half the year, and Backstrom got hurt after in game 38. Suddenly the Caps were floundering for the first time in nearly 5 years. They pulled it together at the end of the year, going 10-5-1 to hold off a charging Buffalo squad and grab 7^th in the East, but for a team that was talked about as a President’s Trophy winner, it was a tremendous fall from grace.

Although the Bruins finished with a good record, their season was no less inconsistent. After lifting the cup in June, they began the season 3-7, and people started to ask questions. Then they put together a 15 game unbeaten streak, before losing 2-1 in a playoff-style game in Winnipeg. And then there’s the lopsided wins. The Bruins manhandled their opposition at times, beating Toronto 7-0 In November, and 8-0 in March; they beat Philadelphia 6-0 in December, and Florida 8-0; they also beat Calgary 9-0. But then they lost 6-0 to Buffalo, 6-1 to Tampa Bay, and 6-2 to Florida, none of whom even made the playoffs. Furthermore, out of the teams they blew out, only Philadelphia and Florida made the playoffs, and each of those teams had similar performances against Winnipeg, with Philly giving up 9 goals in a 9-8 loss, and Florida getting crushed 7-0. Perhaps those lopsided wins had less to do with Boston, and more to do with their opposition.

Now there’s no question that Boston is heavily favoured over Washington. Take away their respective starts, and the Bruins were miles better than the Caps for the bulk of the year. But Washington has an interesting stat: their record this year with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin and Green all in the lineup is 10-1. And they also won the season series 3-1 against the Bruins. The main chink in their armor now is the fact that their top-2 goaltenders – Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth – are both injured. Vokoun is out for at least the 1^st round, while Neuvirth is day-to-day. That leaves youngster Braden Holtby to carry the mail against the defending Stanley Cup champions, and I don’t like his chances. But the fact that Washington’s top guns are all healthy should make this series very interesting, and if they do manage to keep the series close early on, it might have a dramatic end.

Top-10 Scorers

(3) Florida vs (6) New Jersey

Season Series: 2-1-1 Fla (2-2-0 Njd)

There’s a tendency to bash the Panthers, calling them the worst team in the playoffs. For my part, I believe that is entirely true. The Panthers have very little scoring, and non-elite goaltending – probably the two most important elements for playoff success. But somehow they get the job done. They have the ability to stay in games, and I could see them taking three or four games to OT, and getting a couple of bounces.

But there’s no question that New Jersey is the favourite. Ilya Kovalchk has had a tremendous year, and Zach Parise has bounced back nicely after missing almost all of last year after knee surgery. Patrik Elias has had a career resurgence at age 35, and the Devils are getting production from all kinds of unexpected sources like Clarkson, Sykora, Zubrus, and rooke Adam Henrique. Travis Zajac is also back healthy, and Marek Zidlicky is finding his groove after coming over in a trade with Minnesota.

Florida’s best hope is that Brodeur has a series worthy of retirement – which isn’t out of the question – but even if that does happen, Johan Hedberg can carry the mail for a few games. New Jersey shouldn’t blow Florida out of the water, but I seriously doubt Florida has the chops to pull off the upset.

Top-10 Scorers

(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Philadelphia

Season Series: 2-3-1 Pit (4-2-0 Phi)

December 8, December 29, February 18, March 18, April 1, and April 7. These are the 6 dates where the Pens and Flyers squared off. I bring it up because many are pointing to the season series as the reason why the Flyers may have an edge over the Pens. But although the Flyers won 4 of 6 (including one in OT), that stat may be a bit misleading. The Pens went 0-2 in the first 2 meetings, but neither Crosby nor Letang were available. With Letang in the lineup, the Penguins actually went 2-1-1 on the year. And while many believed that Crosby’s return put Pittsburgh over the edge, I think Letang is just as valuable to the Pens, assuming Malkin is healthy and in MVP form as he has been all year. Letang is one of the top-5 defencemen in the league, and can do it all – skate, pass, shoot, and hit – and having him the lineup really shores up the back-end.

Conversely, Philadelphia will be without Pronger and Meszaros on the defensive size, as well as Van Riemsdyk up front, and possibly Briere. The fact that Philly still has a chance shows the tremendous depth of their roster, but the skill and experience brought by Pronger and Briere simply can’t be replaced. Yes, the series will be entertaining, and I expect an ebb and flow where each team will look dominant at different points, but in the end I think a healthy Penguins team will outlast an injury-depleted Philly squad.

Top-10 Scorers

Summary of First-Round Picks:

(1) Vancouver versus (8) Los Angeles            Pick Vancouver

(2) St. Louis versus (7) San Jose                      Pick San Jose

(3) Phoenix versus (6) Chicago                        Pick Chicago

(4) Nashville versus (5) Detroit                        Pick Nashville

(1) New York versus (8) Ottawa                       Pick New York

(2) Boston versus (7) Washington                  Pick Boston

(3) Florida versus (6) New Jersey                    Pick New Jersey

(4) Pittsburgh versus (5) Philadelphia           Pick Pittsburgh

Second Round:

(1) Vancouver versus (7) San Jose                  Pick Vancouver

(4) Nashville versus (6) Chicago                     Pick Nashville

(1) New York versus (6) New Jersey              Pick New York

(2) Boston versus (4) Pittsburgh                     Pick Pittsburgh

Third Round:

(1) Vancouver versus (4) Nashville                 Pick Nashville

(1) New York versus (4) Pittsburgh                Pick Pittsburgh

 Final:

(4) Pittsburgh versus (4) Nashville                  Pick Pittsburgh

If you’re a fan of the World Junior Championships, you know that they never disappoint. Year after year, they bring us some of the most exciting hockey you’ll ever see – particularly for Canadian hockey fans, who have been absolutely spoiled with gold medals and great memories.

Cue the goosebumps:

[youtube R8v8C3scwvg]

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I’m gonna give you a quick run-down of this year’s tournament, starting with the hometown red and white. Here’s Canada’s 22-man roster for the 2012 World Junior Championship (click to enlarge):

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Forwards

If Canada is going to win gold at this year’s tournament, team captain Jaden Schwartz will need to play a big part. Schwartz made the team last year, but after injuring his ankle in only the 2nd game, he was forced to miss the rest of the tournament. Though he’s a small player (5’9), he’s quick and incredibly skilled with the puck, and will be relied on to jump start the offence, particularly on the powerplay.

Brett Connolly is another returning player who will be looked to for his scoring touch this year. After a great NHL training camp this fall, Connolly managed to stick around with the Tampa Bay Lightning. And though he’s only scored 4 goals through 28 games, he should be far more effective playing against teenagers as opposed to men. He has a goal scorer’s touch and should be amongst the tournament leaders in goals if he plays the in which he’s capable.

Mark Scheifele is already familiar to many Canadian hockey fans because of the way he played in the NHL’s exhibition season, and is very well-known amongst Jets fans. After a brief NHL stay, Scheifele has done nothing but tear it up since returning to junior, collecting 36 points in only 19 games. Scheifele will centre one of Canada’s top-2 lines, and should make his teammates better because of his great hands, vision, and on-ice awareness. Although they say the World Juniors are a 19-year-old’s tournament, Scheifele’s skill and maturity go well beyond his 18 years.

Brendan Gallagher is a phenomenally talented player who’s limited only by his size. Though he’ll almost always be out-muscled, rarely will he be out-skilled, out-skated, or out-hustled. He had a great training camp with the Montreal Canadians this fall and nearly made the team, but was instead returned to junior hockey, where he’s continued to impress, scoring 24 goals in just 28 games. Team Canada Head Coach Don Hay knows first hand just how good this guy is, as he also happens to coach Gallagher’s junior team, the Vancouver Giants. Gallagher should be one of Canada’s leading scorers, and a definite fan favourite.

Speaking of fan favourites, meet Devante Smith-Pelly. At 5’11, 210, he’s built like a truck, and hits everything that moves. But Smith-Pelly isn’t just a grinder – he can play. That’s why the 19-year-old has spent the year with the Anaheim Ducks, scoring 3 goals thus far. He was also a key contributor to last season’s OHL championship team, the St. Mike’s Majors, where he scored 15 goals in just 20 playoff games. Like Connolly, Smith-Pelly should find a bit more room to breathe here than in the NHL, and should contribute some offence as a result.

Ryan Strome has had a disappointing year thus far. After posting 106 points last season, and seeing his draft stock soar to 5th overall (New York Islanders), he’s put up only 33 points this season. Furthermore, those who observed the junior selection camp said he didn’t perform particularly well. Despite this apparent inconsistency, Strome is a dynamic player who could make some key plays for Canada as the tournament wears on.

Mark Stone and Tanner Pearson are certainly late bloomers. It’s rare that you’ll see a player of Stone’s caliber drafted in the 6th round of the NHL draft, but that’s exactly the case for the WHL’s leading scorer. Meanwhile, Pearson – the OHL’s scoring leader – hasn’t been drafted at all. Nevertheless, these two should help carry the offensive load, particularly Stone, who has been thoroughly dominant all year long. Pearson, may take a bit of time to adjust, as he’s never played at this level before.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Quinton Howden are both key players who come into the tournament as question marks. Huberdeau is easily the most talented player on the team, but is still getting back into game shape after breaking his foot on November 7. Meanwhile Howden, one of the team’s 4 returning players, suffered a minor concussion in selection camp after being crushed by teammate Devante Smith-Pelly. Each of them played on Dec. 23 against Switzerland, but will take a while to get their timing and conditioning back. With the tournament being so short, it’s hard to imagine that either of them will be at their best.

At this point, Canada’s least acclaimed forwards are Freddie Hamilton, Michael Bournival, and Boone Jenner. Though none is a high draft pick, or having a particularly dominant season, each made the team for a reason.  Hamilton is both talented and versatile, and can play centre or right wing. Bournival is yet another skilled player who could move up the lineup if more talented players struggle to score. Finally there’s Jenner, who will be be looked upon to provide grit for Team Canada, despite the fact that he leads his junior team (the Oshawa Generals) in scoring.

Defence

Look for this to be Brandon Gormley‘s coming out party. Gormley probably would have made the team last year, but suffered an injury just prior to selection camp. His game is best described as sound, with virtually no weaknesses to speak of. He’s also a leader, evidenced by the fact that he’s the only defencemen with an ‘A’ on his jersey.

Dougie Hamilton is probably the best long-term NHL prospect on the roster, and brings a little bit of everything to the table. Despite his team-leading 45 points with the OHL’s Niagra Ice Dogs, Hamilton isn’t a pure skill defenceman, but his combination of size, smarts, and puck handling ability make Hamilton a force at both ends of the ice.

Ryan Murray is probably the most gifted defenceman on the roster, and is expected to be drafted in the top-5 in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. He’s been injured much of the year, playing only 11 games so far this season for the WHL’s Everett Silvertips, but if he’s fully ready to go, his wonderful combination of skating and puck handling will be a welcome addition on the powerplay and at even-strength.

Like his future Montreal Canadians teammate Brendan Gallagher, Nathan Beaulieu had a great NHL camp; there was even some talk he might stick around the NHL for a while. Instead, the slick playmaker was returned to his junior team – last year’s Memorial Cup Champs, the  St. John’s Sea Dogs. Beaulieu has grown accustomed to an up-tempo style of hockey, helping to lead the Sea Dogs’ high powered offence, and is expected to be the offensive catalyst on the blueline for Team Canada.

There’s only one way to describe Scott Harrington‘s game – solid. He won’t do anything flashy, but he’s that stabilizing force that will block a shot, clear the puck, and take the body at every opportunity. You’ll never see Harrington on the powerplay, but he may not leave the ice much when Canada is on the penalty-kill.

Mark Pysyk will be playing in his own backyard at this year’s tournament. The native of Sherwood Park, AB – an Edmonton suburb – was one of the final cuts from last year’s team, and brings a dependable two-way game to the ice. Like Gormley, his game won’t necessarily blow you away you, but he should see regular minutes in all situations for Don Hay’s team.

At 6’6, and over 240 lbs, Jamie Oleksiak is a beast. His role will be to punish opponents in front of the net and in the corners, and lead the pk. Like Harrington, you won’t see Oleksiak out on the powerplay, but he’ll play an important role in trying to make life difficult for the opposition’s best players.

Goaltending

Though Mark Visentin is the incumbent goaltender from last year’s squad, he isn’t ncessarily the opening day starter. After a poor 1st period in Monday’s exhibition game against Sweden, where he gave up 4 goals, newcomer Scott Wedgewood was solid in relief, stopping all 10 shots he faced. Furthermore, most believed that Wedgewood was the best goaltender in selection camp. Both goaltenders will get a chance to play in the tournament, but if the opening day starter plays well, it will be hard for the other goalie to get back in the net come the medal round.

**Update**: Visentin has been named the starter for today’s game vs. Finland

Missing in Action

As per usual, Team Canada Head Coach Don Hay has a formidable squad, which should compete for a gold medal at this year’s tournament. Of course, should they not win, the story would quickly turn to who isn’t here, and the list is impressive. The NHL has claimed some of Canada’s best under-20′s, including Ryan Johansen (Clb), Sean Couturier (Phi), Erik Gudbranson (Fla), Tyler Seguin (B0s), Jeff Skinner (Car), and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Edm). With those players in the lineup, there’d be almost no doubt that Canada would win gold, but as it stands, things will be interesting.

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Other Medal Contenders

Russia

To say Russia is stacked with talent would be a gross understatement. The team is led by Evgeni Kuznetsov, who was spectacular in last year’s tournament, scoring 4 goals and 7 assists, and leading Russia to an upset, comeback win over Canada. The 1st round pick of the Washington Capitals also garnered tournament all-star honours. Then there’s Alexander Khokhlachev, an early 2nd round pick of the Boston Bruins, who leads the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires in scoring. Nikita Kucherov was one of the most dominant players at last year’s U-18 World Championships, scoring 21 points in only 7 games. Ivan Telegin is a Winnipeg Jets prospect who at his best, resembles a toned-down version of Evgeni Malkin. If all that weren’t enough, there’s draft darlings Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko – the two players who are competing to go #1 in this June’s NHL Entry Draft. With Canada’s best offensive players in the NHL, no one can match Russia’s potent offensive arsenal.

USA

The USA roster doesn’t have as many blue-chip prospects as in years past, but they still have tremendous depth. At forward, they have Florida’s 2010 1st round pick, Nick Bjugstad, who’s having a great sophomore campaign at the University of Minnesota with 16 goals through 20 games. Then there’s Anaheim 1st round pick Emerson Etem, who has 30 goals in 34 games with the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers. Other 1st round picks include Charlie Coyle, (Minnesota), J.T Miller (New York Rangers), and Austin Watson (Nashville). Then there’s Brandon Saad (Chicago), and Jason Zucker (Minnesota) – two 2nd round picks who are quickly making fools of all the teams that passed on them in the 1st round. T.J Tynan is the USA’s version of Brendan Gallagher – a player who’s small but very skilled. On defence they boast 1st round picks like Derek Forbort and Jared Tinordi, as well as 2nd round pick Jon Merril. Each of them is physically imposing – particularly Tinordi, who stands 6’7. And in goal, they have Jack Campbell – the guy who came in in relief and led the USA to 2010 World Junior Championship gold. He’s also a 1st round selection of the Dallas Stars, and, on paper, the best goalie in the tournament.

Sweden

The Swedish attack is led by  Mika Zibanejad – last year’s 6th overall pick of the Ottawa Senators. Zibanejad started the season in Ottawa, but with the team struggling early, they thought it best for him to continue his development at home in Sweden. He’s big and fast, with great hands and a great shot, and will give defenders nightmares throughout the tournament. Forward Rickard Rakell was a late 1st round pick of Anaheim, while Victor Rask was an early 2nd round pick for Carolina. Both play in the CHL and lead their teams in goal scoring. Meanwhile centre Filip Forsberg (no relation to Peter) is expected to be a top-5 pick in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. On defence, the team boasts two 1st round picks – Jonas Brodin (Minnesota), and Oscar Klefbom (Edmonton). Brodin brings great skating, passing, and intelligence to the ice, while Klefbom is big and fast, with a hard shot. They happen to play for the same Swedish pro team (Farjestad), and they complement each other well.

Notably absent for the Swedes are forward Gabriel Landeskog and defenceman Adam Larsson, both of whom are playing in the NHL. They of course were drafted 2nd and 4th in last year’s draft – to Colorado and New Jersey respectively. Nevertheless, the Swedes are still a force, as evidenced by their surprising exhibition win over Canada this past Monday.

Other Players to Watch (NHL team in backets)

Finland – Mikael Granlund (Min), Joel Armia (Buf), Teemu Pulkkinen (Det)

Slovakia – Martin Marincin (Edm), Martin Gernat (Edm), Tomas Jurco (Det)

Switzerland – Sven Bartschi (Cgy)

Denmark – Nicklas Jensen (Van)

Latvia – Zemgus Girgensons (2012 draft eligible)

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Seeding

The team’s are split into two pools – A & B – like so:

Pool A: Russia, Sweden, Slovakia, Switzerland, Latvia

Pool B: Canada, USA, Finland, Czech Republic, Denmark

After a 4-game round robin where every team plays each other once, the top-3 teams in each pool get a chance to advance through the medal round. Barring any surprises, look for Russia or Sweden to finish top-2 in Pool A, and Canada or the USA to win pool B. Slovakia is my bet to get 3rd in Pool A  – though Switzerland isn’t a bad opponent – and Finland has a slight edge over the Czech Republic in Pool B, due, if nothing else, to the sheer dominance of centre Mikael Granlund.

In the medal round, the 3rd place team from Pool A plays the 2nd place team from Pool B, and vice versa, while the 1st place team from each pool gets a bye to the semi-final. If we assume that Russia and Canada each win their pools, that would mean a classic quarter-final match-up of Sweden vs. Finland, and a slightly less classic USA vs. Slovakia. The winner of Sweden-Finland would then play Canada, while the winner of USA-Slovakia would take on Russia.

I don’t want to predict a winner because I really don’t have a strong opinion, but I feel like Russia and Canada are the top-2 teams. That being said, the USA and Sweden are also excellent, and could just as easily make up the final.

Last year I didn’t think Canada was good enough to win, and they surprised me all the way till the 3rd period of the gold medal game, when they were overwhelmed by the Russians. This year they’ve gotten a nice boost from NHL’ers like Connolly and Smith-Pelly being available to join the team, and they boast a well-balanced attack up front. The questions will be on defence, where all 7 defenceman are World Junior rookies, and in goal, where Wedgewood/Visentin will be tested against the USA in round robin play, and against Sweden and/or Russia is the medal round.

Regardless of the outcome, it should be a very compelling 11 days of hockey! Sit back and enjoy.

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In case you’ve been living under a rock, you probably know that Teemu Selanne makes his glorious return to Winnipeg tonight. According to TSN’s Sara Orlesky, Teemu has been looking forward to this day from the moment the NHL schedule was announced, way back in June. But regardless of how high his expectations are for tonight’s game, chances are that Selanne will be blown away by the outpouring of support he’ll receive from the vast sea of Jets fans. It will be an incredibly special night for Teemu and his family, who have flown down to .

Despite the fact that Selanne played just 3.5 seasons in Winnipeg, he is among the two most beloved Jets in history. And though Dale Hawerchuk had a much longer tenure with the Jets (9 seasons), Selanne is absolutely revered by virtually every Winnipeg hockey fan under the age of 35. That’s because of the connection we all have to his ’92-’93 rookie season, which saw him score 76 goals and 132 points, and break almost every rookie scoring in the books. But not only is Selanne the best rookie in NHL history, he also posted one of the most dominant goal-scoring seasons for any player, ever. In fact, only three players have scored more than 76 goals in a single season – Brett Hull, Mario Lemieux, and Wayne Gretzky. (Alexander Mogily and Phil Esposito have each tied his total of 76).

After many great years in Anaheim, including a Stanley Cup win in 2007, Selanne now ranks 13th all-time in NHL goal scoring, with 647 goals. And he has the second most goals among active players, just 9 goals behind Jaromir Jagr. So to commemorate one of the best goal scorers in NHL history, here are the three best hat-tricks in Teemu Selanne’s long, storied career. Enjoy the game!

Top-3 Teemu Selanne Hat-Tricks

(3) Teemu dedicates hat-trick to a friend suffering with cancer:

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(2) First career playoff hat-trick (also first ever playoff goal):

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(1) Teemu Breaks Rookie Goal-Scoring Record!

Goals 1+2:

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Goal 3! (Most famous Jets goal ever)

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Relieved of his duties - Former Caps Head Coach Bruce Boudreau (Photo courtesy NHL.com)

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Apparently enough was enough. Two coaches lost their jobs Monday morning, as Washington Head Coach Bruce Boudreau and Carolina’s Paul Maurice each lost their jobs. Given the recent play of each team, neither was particularly surprising, but in my opinion, only one was justified.

In the vast majority of cases, I believe that teams play poorly because they’re poorly constructed; they lack scoring, goaltending, consistency, or some other key element. In other words, the team’s General Manager has failed at his job.  This is certainly the case in Carolina, where the Hurricanes were widely expected miss the playoffs. (I had them finishing in the bottom 5 in the East). GM Jim Rutherford made off-season moves which didn’t address the team’s needs, bringing in marginal, 3^rd tier forwards like Alex Ponikarovsky and Anthony Stewart, and overpaying for Tomas Kaberle, a defenceman in decline.  Unfortunately, apart Cam Ward, Brandon Sutter, Jeff Skinner, and Eric Staal, there just isn’t much talent on that roster. And with so few solid contributors, I think it’s a stretch to believe that a coaching change will turn the fortunes of this team. But a coaching change is easy to do, and so it was done.

But there are occasions when coaching changes are merited. In Washington, the team was, and is, expected to compete for the Stanley Cup, and has more than enough scoring, defensive depth, and goaltending acumen to be considered among the 5 best in the league.  But after a magnificent 7-0 start to the season, Boudreau’s Caps went 3-9-1, sending taking them all the way from 1^st in the league to 18^th overall. And it wasn’t just their play this season that tempted GM George McPhee to make the switch. For years, the Caps have been sensational during the regular season, and incredibly underwhelming come playoff time. Despite four consecutive division titles from 2008-2011, which saw them win 37, 50, 54, and 48 games, the Caps never made it past the 2^nd round of the playoffs, and were twice eliminated in the 1^st round. And while it’s hard to fire a coach who won 189 games in under 4 seasons, McPhee saw the season slipping away, and decided that a new voice might get more out of his struggling roster.

Here’s the Caps GM talking about the decision to fire Boudreau

So how often do coaching changes work? Well, not very often. Long-time bottom-feeders like the Atlanta Thrashers, Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New York Islanders have taught us that a revolving door of coaches isn’t the answer. And in most NHL cities, a coach is lucky if he finishes his contract, which is typically three years long. But there are a few cases where a change of leadership made all the difference.

Larry Robinson – 1999-2000 New Jersey Devils

It doesn’t really take guts to fire the coach of a struggling team, but how about firing a coach when the team is 41-20-13, and sitting 1^st in the Eastern Conference? That’s exactly what Lou Lamoriello did in 2000 when he fired Robby Ftorek and promoted former Hall-of-Fame defenceman, and then assistant coach Larry Robinson. The early returns weren’t good, as Robinson started off with a record of 4-4-0. But in the end Lou’s gamble paid off, as Robinson led the team to their 2^nd Stanley Cup, winning in 6 games over the ’99 cup champ Dallas Stars.

Mike Babcock – 2002-2003 ‘Mighty’ Ducks of Anaheim

In 01-02, the Mighty Ducks finished tied for the 4^th worst record in the NHL. As a result, Bryan Murray left the coaching ranks and took up the role as GM, and hired Mike Babcock, who had been coaching the team’s AHL affiliate in Cincinnati. During the regular season, Babcock helped the team make a nice turnaround , finishing 7^th in the Western Conference. For his trouble, his team earned a 1^st round match-up against the Detroit Red Wings – the 2002 Stanley Cup champions.  Unperturbed, the Ducks were excellent in the role of David, as solid defence and miraculous goaltending from J.S Giguere saw them sweep the defending champs in one of the most memorable upsets in playoff history. Anaheim went on to beat 1^st place Dallas in 6 games, and Minnesota in 4 straight before losing to the New Jersey Devils in a tightly contested 7-game series. While J.S Giguere was the obvious hero, taking home the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP, many people credited Babcock with getting the absolute most out of a team who most expected to win no more than 1 or 2 playoff games, rather than 15. The Red Wings especially took note, and hired him to coach their team just two years later. He’d go on to win the Stanley Cup with Detroit in 2008.

Joel Quenneville – 2008-2009 Chicago Blackhawks

Bolstered by the young duo of Kane and Toews, and a talented blueline led by Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Blackhawks GM Dale Tallon expected his talented young team to rise to the top of the hockey world. But after a 1-2-1 start, Tallon fired Head Coach Denis Savard, just four games into the season. To mould the young minds, he hired Joel Quenneville – a man with over 10 years of head coaching experience with St. Louis and Colorado. Quenneville promptly guided the young Hawks to a 45-22-11 record, and took them all the way to the Western Conference Finals, where they lost to a veteran Detroit Red Wing squad. The following year, the Hawks completed their ascension, capturing the Stanley Cup in 6 games over Philadelphia. Most of the attention was paid to the team’s stars, like Duncan Keith, who won the Norris as top defenceman, Jonathan Toews, who captured the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, and Kane, Sharp, Versteeg, Bolland, Seabrook and Byfuglien, who were all instrumental in the victory. But there’s no doubt that Quenneville provided much needed guidance to a young group that was teaming with skill, but short on experience.

Dan Bylsma – 2008-2009 Pittsburgh Penguins

After taking the Pens to the Stanley Cup final in 2008, coach Michel Therrien was fired 57 games into the following season. His record at the time was 27-25-5, and many were struggling to understand how a team so talented could be playing so poorly. And then along came Dan Bylsma, and just as a Phoenix rises from the ash, the Penguins rose to glory. Under Bylsma, the Pens did a complete 180, going 18-3-4 to end the season. They ran over Ottawa in the 1^st round, won a tight 7-game series against Washington in round 2, swept Carolina in the Conference Final, and beat Detroit in an epic 7-game series to win their first Stanley Cup in the post-Lemieux era.

These days, Bylsma is regarded as one of the best coaches in the NHL; in fact, he was awarded the Jack Adams Trophy as Coach of the Year last season, as he guided the Pens to 49 wins despite losing both Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby for half the year. And the cherry on top: Bylsma was drafted by the Winnipeg Jets, way back in 1989.

Crosby during warm up on Jan. 5, 2011 - his last game in the NHL. (Courtesy NHL.com)

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January 1^st, 2011 was the last time Sidney Crosby played with a clear head. That was the day of the NHL’s Winter Classic – a contest between Washington and Pittsburgh which took place at Heinz Field, home of NFL’s Pittsburgh Steelers. With over 60,000 fans on hand, and millions watching on television, Dave Steckel’s blindside hit left Crosby reeling. (Link: Steckel hits Crosby) Though it’s now clear that he was concussed on the play, Crosby actually stayed in the game. Here’s what was written in the NHL’s post-game recap:

“Sidney Crosby was shaken going into the dressing rooms for the second intermission because he was on the wrong end of a David Steckel hit behind the play that definitely caught the attention of everyone watching; but might have been, as Penguins coach Dan Bylsma said, incidental contact. Crosby toughed it out and returned for the third period.”

After a few days off, Crosby suited up in the Pens’ next game against Tampa Bay on January 5^th. He was making a pass behind the Tampa net when Victor Hedman caught him with this hit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sfiMs4l38A

While he looked to be in discomfort coming off the ice, Crosby stayed in this game as well. In fact, there’s no mention whatsoever of Crosby’s injury in the official game recap on nhl.com. A few days later on January 9th, Head Coach Dan Bylsma announced that Crosby had a “mild concussion”. The initial timeline on the injury was that he’d miss at least a week.

Now 45 weeks later, Sidney Crosby is set to make his return to the NHL.

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Despite his incredible ability, not everyone likes Sidney Crosby. Some grew to dislike him early in his career, calling him a whiner for the way he dealt with the increased attention paid to the game’s newest phenom. (People said the same thing about Gretzky early in his career). But regardless of your opinion about him as a player, there’s no denying that Crosby is the single most recognizable figure in the game of hockey. And when healthy, he’s not only the best player in the league, but also the NHL’s strongest ambassador. In a league that has very little economic stability beyond the traditional hockey markets (Canada/the original six), there’s no overstating Crosby’s importance in growing interest in the game.

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The comeback has been a long time coming. On September 7^th, Crosby let the world know he was on the road to recovery. Though his 40-minute press conference gave very few details on the extent of his past brain trauma, Crosby maintained that he never once considered the possibility of retirement. Now after 5 weeks of vigorous practice with the team, Crosby is finally ready to go.

Naturally, this raises questions: Can Crosby play as well as he did prior to the concussion? Are the Penguins now a favourite to win the Stanley Cup? And most important of all: is another concussion a matter of if, or when?

Firstly, I think Crosby can return to the player he was – it just won’t happen overnight. No one should expect his usual level of production this season, as it’ll take him a while to get back into peak physical condition and re-adjust to the pace of play in the NHL. A similar case is that of Patrice Bergeron, who suffered a very serious concussion in the fall of 2007 and missed the entire 07-08 season. He returned the following season and posted only 39 points – tying his career low that he scored as an 18-year-old rookie. Now 39 points would be a drastic decline for Crosby, but if he plays around 60 games, 60 points is realistic.

Secondly, Crosby’s return makes the Penguins an instant cup favourite. They’ve been at or near the top of the Eastern Conference most of the season without him, and with the Caps struggling mightily as of late, it’s hard to find a team that’s more well-equipped to go the distance.

As for the million dollar question, it’s difficult to say. Though the chances of Crosby playing out his career without suffering another concussion is slim, it’s entirely possible that the next concussion could be minor. Patrice Bergeron and David Booth have each experienced severe concussions, returned to action, and suffered yet another concussion. However, their subsequent concussions were both minor by comparison, and each has been healthy since.  On the other hand, Marc Savard is unofficially retired at this point, having suffered a major concussion in March of 2010, and a subsequent concussion this past January.

However the difference between Bergeron & Booth versus Savard  is that the latter had a long concussion history. Savard has experienced no less than 5 concussions, dating back to 2001, and had at least 3 prior to the Matt Cooke elbow in 2010. As for Bergeron and Booth, neither had any significant concussion history prior to their incidents; the fact that Crosby’s case is comparable to theirs brings Crosby fans –and the entire hockey community – a measure of hope.

If Sidney Crosby were to retire today, he’d already be one of the most decorated hockey players in history. He’s won the Stanley Cup, an Olympic gold medal, and a World Junior Championship. He has also won most of the major individual awards, including the Art Ross as the NHL’s leading scorer, the Hart Trophy as league MVP, and the Lester Pearson, which goes to the league’s best player, as voted on by the players. Virtually the only major honour that eludes him is the Conn Smythe Trophy – playoff MVP honours won by Evgeni Malkin in 2009. But Crosby doesn’t play the game just to rack up individual honours; those who know him say they’ve never seen anyone who’s more driven to win. And beyond the skill he brings to the ice, it’s that competitiveness that truly sets him apart from everyone else in hockey today. And for that reason, it’s hard to bet against him when he sets his mind on something. So if Sidney Crosby believes that he will play at a high level for the next 10 years or more, I have a hard time believing otherwise. And that’s a great thing for the people of Pittsburgh, and hockey fans everywhere.

Courtesy nhl.com

Thoughts from the Jets’ inaugural month

Bolstering Byfuglien

If you’re getting tired of Dustin Byfuglien’s attention to detail – or lack thereof – prepare to be exasperated. Buff has demonstrated his recklessness on several occasions, seldom more obviously than Saturday night in New Jersey, where his neutral-zone carelessness led directly to Adam Henrique’s OT winner.  We all know Buff is a high-risk, high-reward player, but with only 2 goals in 15 games this year, many are beginning to wonder if the potential upside (he scored 16 goals in 42 games to begin last season) can offset the obvious drawbacks.

While it’s possible that Buff’s defensive play will improve in time (he’s played just one full season as an NHL defenceman), the long-term solution is probably for the coaching staff to mitigate his weaknesses by pairing him with a very smart, stay-at-home defenceman who reads the play exceptionally well, and also skates well. Tobias Enstrom is easily the Jets’ smartest player, and the best in-house candidate, but he isn’t a shut-down defenceman, and babysitting Byfuglien might take away from his offensive game. Marc Staal is pretty much the ideal candidate, but unfortunately he has a long-term contract with the New York Rangers (although he’s currently out with a concussion). Montreal’s Josh Gorges – a UFA at season’s end – would also be a great fit, but the Habs will probably do everything in their power to hold onto him. Other free agent options next summer include St. Louis’ Barrett Jackman and Carolina’s Tim Gleason, but each will be hotly pursued come July 1, 2012; Greg Zanon and Aaron Rome are a bit more understated, and may be more realistic options.

The devastating power of expectations

Going into the season, the line of Ladd-Little-Wheeler was given the dubious title of the “#1 line”. And yet through *14 games, neither Little nor Wheeler had scored a goal, while Ladd had scored just 3. But perhaps “yet” was the wrong connector; maybe the sentence should have read “and naturally, through 14 games, neither had scored…”.  (*Little scored 2 goals last night in the 15^th game of the season. Wheeler is still scoreless).

Wheeler began last season with Boston, but was traded in mid-February, and played his first game with Atlanta on February 19^th. He teamed up with Ladd and Little for the last 23 games, and the trio played well, recording 20 goals in all – nearly a goal per game.

(Wheeler – 7G, 10A | Ladd – 9G, 7A | Little – 4G, 11A)

So what was the difference? It’s almost as if the trio collectively suffered from the sophomore slump – which is nothing more than psychology and inertia. There’s very little media attention in Atlanta at the best of times, and when Wheeler was traded to Atlanta, the Thrashers were no longer a serious playoff contender. With little or no pressure to win, guys had the luxury of ‘playing loose’. The trio had a few good games together, and kept the momentum rolling for the remainder of the season. Contrast that with this season, where the team came into a hockey-starved market with a delirious fan-base and (perhaps) unreasonably high expectations. Pegged as the first line, L, L, & W got off to a slow start, and probably felt more and more pressure with each passing game. Players often say they start to grip their sticks a little tighter in an effort to ‘bear down’ – but it’s almost as if they’re trying too hard. Still unable to contribute to the offence, doubt naturally creeps into one’s mind, and the game becomes a lot less fun. Now it’s a small effort to come to the rink, and you have less energy and enthusiasm as a result.

Castaways or key cogs

If you bet that Nik Antropov and Kyle Wellwood would be two of the team’s top-3 scorers after 15 games, you’re special. In fact, if you told someone that before the season started, you would have been heckled. Most people had Kane, Ladd, Little, Wheeler, and even Scheifele ahead of those two. But with 11 and 10 points respectively, these leafs castaways have been very impressive. Antropov has great size and hands and is very effective down low and in front of the net. He was a great complement to Alex Burmistrov’s quick, darting style of play before getting hurt. And Wellwood is a crafty player with soft hands and great vision who helps create a lot of offence whenever he’s on the ice.

Their success is interesting because it’s in stark contrast to the story of Ladd, Little, and Wheeler. Each of them had the good fortune of flying under the radar – no one had high expectations for these players. And with the pressure off, each of them got off to a great start: Antropov scored the first goal in new Jets history, and Wellwood scored 8 seconds into the Jets’ eventual 1^st win against Pittsburgh. Their play will be interesting to watch as the season goes on, as both have been criticized in the past for their inconsistency and lack of intensity.

Missing Toby

Tobias Enstrom is one of the league’s best offensive defencemen. Losing him will hurt the team everywhere, as his 25⁺ minutes per game are irreplaceable, but the place where it hurts most is on the powerplay. I’m not exactly sure how this happened, but one day Claude Noel got up and decided that Tim Stapleton was the right man for the job. And while I think Stapleton has done an admirable job and earned all the minutes he’s gotten this year, his place on the 1^st powerplay unit is conspicuous – or “marked by a noticeable violation of good taste”. While Johnny Oduya has had his struggles this season, he’s a better choice to help the powerplay, as he once ran powerplay’s in New Jersey (had two seasons of just under 30 points), while Stapleton – a 29-year-old career minor leaguer, has just 13 career NHL points.

Pavel Burmistrov

By this point, I think we all agree that Alexander Burmistrov is a phenomenally talented player. At 20 years of age, he’s quick, dynamic, and creative. He’s a fan favourite, and has people moving to the edge of their seats every time he touches the puck. His calling cards are tremendous puck-handling and agility, which would be second-to-none, if not for one exception: fellow Russian Pavel Datsyuk.

See: Datsyuk plays keep-a-way

It’s an all-too common trend to compare young players to older peers from their home country. Swedish scouts for instance, occasionally refer to prolific young defencemen as ‘the next Lidstrom’ despite few real similarities. (Victor Hedman and Adam Larsson have both suffered this comparison). Czech winger Michael Frolik was a phenom at age 16, and was naturally compared to Jaromir Jagr. And Swedish centre Nicklas Backstrom was called a less physical version of Peter Forsberg. (That one is actually not too bad). So you might think it’s simply convenient to compare Burmistrov to Datsyuk based on their cultural heritage. But that isn’t the case.

In relation to playing style, Burmistrov and Datsyuk have many similar traits. Each seems to control the puck as if it’s attached by some magnetic force. Each of them makes plays in traffic and at high speed. Each of them is more playmaker than passer, though Datsyuk is a better finisher at this point. And though Burmistrov’s defensive game is nowhere near Datsyuk’s yet, he does compete hard in the defensive end, which is impressive for a young skilled forward, and particularly uncommon from a Russian forward. Obviously Burmistrov has a long road ahead if he hopes to achieve that level – Pavel Valerievich Datsyuk is not only the world’s most dangerous guy one-on-one, but the best two-way player in the league, as evidenced by three straight Selke trophies from 2008-2010. But the raw talent is there if he can stay focused and work as hard as Datsyuk evidently has to get to this point.