2012 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

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It’s been a long time. I know why I haven’t written in so long, and it’s because when I do, it takes, FOREVER. but I hope you enjoy the fruits of my labour with the following two-part series. Today, I break down the series’ in brief, along with my picks for the entire playoff season. Tomorrow, I go into further detail and tell you the rationale behind my thinking. Without further ado, here is my 2012 playoff preview.

Western Conference

(1) Vancouver vs (8) Los Angeles

Season Series: 2-1-1 Vancouver (2-2-0 LA)

Legend:

OT=overtime/shootout losses | ROW=regulation/overtime wins

GF=goals for | GA=goals against | GD=goal differential

ESF=even-strength goals for | ESA=even-strength goals against

PPF=power play goals for | PPA=power play goals against

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The last time these teams met in the playoffs was in 2009-2010, with Vancouver winning in 6 games. However, prior to game 5, the teams played four hard-fought games, and the series was tied at 2-all. The Sedins’ took over a bit in the final two games, but many people were impressed with the Kings’ play and saw them as a team on the rise. Expectations were high this year in LA after an off-season that saw them acquire Mike Richards from Philadelphia, but the season didn’t go as planned.

A quick look at the numbers tells us that Vancouver is a pretty heavy favourite here, but by no means does that mean this series will be easy. Vancouver outscored LA by 55 goals this season, and boasts a great goaltending tandem with maligned but talented Roberto Luongo and young star Cory Schneider. And while they may not be quite as deep on defence as they were last season (losing Christian Ehrhoff in free agency hurts their powerplay), this team doesn’t have any obvious holes. They have a good mix of size, skill, and speed, good special teams, and plenty of playoff experience.

While LA certainly has talent, they struggled all year long to score goals. Players like Mike Richards and Drew Doughty nearly equaled career lows from their rookie seasons, and no one outperformed expectations offensively. Yet many observers think this team is built for the playoffs, with plenty of size and skill up front with Carter and Kopitar, and gritty leaders like Richards and Brown. Despite a poor season, Drew Doughty remains a dynamic presence on the back-end. And then there’s the x-factor in goaltender Jonathan Quick – a surefire Vezina Trophy candidate who posted 10 shutouts this season.

Judging by the results of the season, there’s no question that Vancouver is a far better team. But in a short best-of-7 series, all it would take is for a few Kings forwards to find their groove, and for Jonathan Quick to maintain his stellar play from the regular season. I’d be shocked if this series went fewer than 6 games, and expect that a few games will be decided in overtime.

Top-10 Scorers

(2) St. Louis vs (7) San Jose

Season Series: 4-0-0 Stl

A clash between the young upstarts and the grizzled veterans. St. Louis is one of the youngest teams in the league, and virtually all their keys players are mid-20’s or younger. In fact, only two of their top-10 scorers are over 30, and both goalies are just 26 – virtual babies in goalie terms. After starting the season 6-7, St. Louis fired Head Coach Davis Payne and replaced him with veteran bench boss Ken Hitchcock. All Hitchcock did was guide the team to a 43-15-11 record – good for 3^rd place in the NHL – and created a stifling defensive system, allowing the fewest goals in the entire league.

And then there’s the San Jose Sharks. After two straight Conference Final appearances (where they lost to Chicago in 4 straight, and Vancouver in 5), the Sharks looked poised to take the next step after acquiring a top-flight defenceman in Brent Burns to round out their roster. Instead, they took a massive step back, barely making the playoffs, and looking about as dysfunctional as any team league-wide. No team has been more disappointing, as the Sharks can’t even point to injury problems this season, unlike other pre-season favourites like Buffalo, Washington, and Los Angeles.

But despite the disparity in their regular season stats, I’d be shocked if this series was quick. San Jose has a history of being a last-minute team, waiting till crunch time to really bring their A-game. In 2008, they went down 3-games-to-none in the 2^nd round against Dallas, but nearly came all the way back, losing in a game 6 triple-OT thriller. In 2010 they almost went down 2-games-to-none in the 1^st round against Colorado, but Joe Pavelski scored with 32 seconds left and the Sharks won game 2 in OT, eventually taking the series in 6. Last season they got down 4-0 in game 3 against LA but then stormed back to win 6-5 in OT, a huge turning point in the series. And this season, when it looked like they’d miss the playoffs, they won 7 of their last 9 to sneak into 7^th. Looking at their top-8 scorers, it’s hard to imagine that this team finished 7^th, with former Canadian Olympians in Thornton, Marleau, and Boyle, US Olympian Joe Pavelski, young star Logan Couture, and other talented players like Brent Burns, Ryane Clowe, and Martin Havlat.

While St. Louis is certainly favoured after posting 11 more regulation wins and taking the season series 4-0, I think there’s a definite possibility that an upset is brewing. It’s always interesting when a young, inexperienced team plays an experienced veteran group, because emotions always run high in playoffs, and momentum swings can have a more pronounced effect on a younger group. Ultimately it may come down to whichever goaltender plays better, and St. Louis should have an advantage, as Halak and Elliot have been great all year, while Antti Niemi has been fairly inconsistent. Niemi is a cup winner though, and played very well in the 2^nd round last year against Detroit, so he has proven that he can raise his level.

Top-10 Scorers

(3) Phoenix vs (6) Chicago

Season Series: 3-1-0 Phx (1-2-1 Chi)

Former Stanley Cup champs versus the perennial underdogs. This series reminds me a lot of Anaheim-Nashville from last season – a recent cup winner with high-end offensive talent against a defensively conscious, depth-based group. The big mistake from last year was thinking that Ray Emery could come close to beating Pekka Rinne – in the end the gap in goaltending was just too great. The same could be said this year, as Corey Crawford has been inconsistent for Chicago, while Mike Smith has put together a near-Vezina quality season in Phoenix.

All that being said, I don’t think Phoenix is as good a team as Nashville. Smith is no Pekka Rinne, and there’s no Weber-Suter tandem in Phoenix either. Meanwhile, Chicago is a more well-rounded team than Anaheim, with great defencemen like Keith and Seabrook on the back-end (which Anaheim lacked), and more offensive depth beyond the top few guys. Furthermore, apart from losing Brian Campbell (who was vastly underutilized), Chicago is virtually the same team as last year. And lest we forget, Chicago nearly staged a historic comeback against the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in round 1 – losing in OT in game 7, after being down 3-0 in the series.

Phoenix’s one saving grace is that Jonathan Toews’ status is still up in the air after missing the past 2 months with a concussion. But it looks like Toews is on the road to recovery and should make an appearance in the series.

Top-10 Scorers

(4) Nashville vs (5) Detroit

Season Series: 3-3-0

The fact that these two teams are meeting in the first round is nothing if not unfortunate. This series could easily be a Conference Final instead of a 1^st round match-up, but instead, we have the pleasure of watching two great teams go toe-to-toe right off the hop.

But it also makes predictions difficult. Detroit still boasts the usual suspects – Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Lidstrom – but they’re all a bit long in the tooth now. Datsyuk is nearing 34, Zetterberg 32, Franzen 33, and Lidstrom is weeks away from turning 42 years of age. When they’re fresh and healthy, they can still light up the scoreboard as well as any team in the league, but all too often teammates are looking around the dressing room and finding one or more of those guys are watching from the press box.

Meanwhile Nashville has the same cast of hard-working, two-way forwards, along with the league’s best defensive pairing in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, and last year’s Vezina runner-up Pekka Rinne. But to their opponents’ dismay, they’ve been given an offensive spark with the return of the world’s “best player not playing in the NHL” – Russian phenom Alexander Radulov. Radulov has been the MVP of Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) two of the last three seasons, and has shown flashes of brilliance in the 9 games since his return to the NHL. If Radulov can harness his potential, his offensive contributions could be enough to take Nashville to the next level and make their first deep run at the Stanley Cup.

But ultimately, this series is a coin flip. If these teams were meeting in the 2^nd or 3^rd round, I’d have no qualms with taking Nashville, since Detroit’s aging group has been unable to sustain a long playoff run since 2009. (They’ve been eliminated in the 2^nd round two years straight). But in a first round match-up, the Wings are as dangerous as anyone. Pekka Rinne will need to be the better goalie in order for Nashville to move on, and forwards like Radulov, Erat, and Hornqvist will need to score big goals.

Top-10 Scorers

Eastern Conference

(1) New York (Rangers) vs. (8) Ottawa

Season Series: 3-1 Ottawa (1-2-1 Nyr)

The tagline of this series is offence versus defence. All Ottawa knows how to do is score, meaning they rely heavily on goaltender Craig Anderson to bail them out of tough situations. Meanwhile New York plays a highly defensive style, and has their franchise player in net with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. This will be an interesting series to watch, as Ottawa will try to dictate play with their up-tempo offence, while New York will try to slow down the pace with a relentless forecheck, neutral zone trap, and blocking a million shots in their own zone.

Ottawa’s gameplan is very simple. Put the puck in the hands of Erik Karlsson, and let him distribute to Spezza, Michalek and Alfredsson. Beyond the top-4, there isn’t much to be frightened of, though Foligno and Turris are no slouches up front.

The question for me isn’t whether New York’s defence stop Ottawa’s offence – Ottawa will score their fair share. However, Ottawa can tighten up enough to stop New York? Ottawa’s defence was rather porous all year, giving up the most goals (240) of any playoff team. Meanwhile New York produced a rather average offensive output, but does have star power up front with Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and the surprising Ryan Callahan. The Rangers also have secondary scoring with Stepan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, and Hagelin, and I just don’t think that Ottawa can match their depth.

Ottawa did win the season series 3-1, so by no means is this series a foregone conclusion, but come playoff time, goals are always much harder to come by. If Ottawa’s offence dries up even a bit, they’ll have a lot of trouble beating the Rangers in tight games.

Top-10 Scorers

(2) Boston vs (7) Washington

Season Series: 3-1-0 Was (1-2-1 Bos)

This series might not be close, but it could still be interesting. We all know how completely disappointing the Capitals were this year, but some of us still remember their 7-0 start to the year, which included a 7-1 win over Detroit. Then Mike Green got hurt, and everything went downhill from there. Ovechkin slumped for about half the year, and Backstrom got hurt after in game 38. Suddenly the Caps were floundering for the first time in nearly 5 years. They pulled it together at the end of the year, going 10-5-1 to hold off a charging Buffalo squad and grab 7^th in the East, but for a team that was talked about as a President’s Trophy winner, it was a tremendous fall from grace.

Although the Bruins finished with a good record, their season was no less inconsistent. After lifting the cup in June, they began the season 3-7, and people started to ask questions. Then they put together a 15 game unbeaten streak, before losing 2-1 in a playoff-style game in Winnipeg. And then there’s the lopsided wins. The Bruins manhandled their opposition at times, beating Toronto 7-0 In November, and 8-0 in March; they beat Philadelphia 6-0 in December, and Florida 8-0; they also beat Calgary 9-0. But then they lost 6-0 to Buffalo, 6-1 to Tampa Bay, and 6-2 to Florida, none of whom even made the playoffs. Furthermore, out of the teams they blew out, only Philadelphia and Florida made the playoffs, and each of those teams had similar performances against Winnipeg, with Philly giving up 9 goals in a 9-8 loss, and Florida getting crushed 7-0. Perhaps those lopsided wins had less to do with Boston, and more to do with their opposition.

Now there’s no question that Boston is heavily favoured over Washington. Take away their respective starts, and the Bruins were miles better than the Caps for the bulk of the year. But Washington has an interesting stat: their record this year with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin and Green all in the lineup is 10-1. And they also won the season series 3-1 against the Bruins. The main chink in their armor now is the fact that their top-2 goaltenders – Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth – are both injured. Vokoun is out for at least the 1^st round, while Neuvirth is day-to-day. That leaves youngster Braden Holtby to carry the mail against the defending Stanley Cup champions, and I don’t like his chances. But the fact that Washington’s top guns are all healthy should make this series very interesting, and if they do manage to keep the series close early on, it might have a dramatic end.

Top-10 Scorers

(3) Florida vs (6) New Jersey

Season Series: 2-1-1 Fla (2-2-0 Njd)

There’s a tendency to bash the Panthers, calling them the worst team in the playoffs. For my part, I believe that is entirely true. The Panthers have very little scoring, and non-elite goaltending – probably the two most important elements for playoff success. But somehow they get the job done. They have the ability to stay in games, and I could see them taking three or four games to OT, and getting a couple of bounces.

But there’s no question that New Jersey is the favourite. Ilya Kovalchk has had a tremendous year, and Zach Parise has bounced back nicely after missing almost all of last year after knee surgery. Patrik Elias has had a career resurgence at age 35, and the Devils are getting production from all kinds of unexpected sources like Clarkson, Sykora, Zubrus, and rooke Adam Henrique. Travis Zajac is also back healthy, and Marek Zidlicky is finding his groove after coming over in a trade with Minnesota.

Florida’s best hope is that Brodeur has a series worthy of retirement – which isn’t out of the question – but even if that does happen, Johan Hedberg can carry the mail for a few games. New Jersey shouldn’t blow Florida out of the water, but I seriously doubt Florida has the chops to pull off the upset.

Top-10 Scorers

(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Philadelphia

Season Series: 2-3-1 Pit (4-2-0 Phi)

December 8, December 29, February 18, March 18, April 1, and April 7. These are the 6 dates where the Pens and Flyers squared off. I bring it up because many are pointing to the season series as the reason why the Flyers may have an edge over the Pens. But although the Flyers won 4 of 6 (including one in OT), that stat may be a bit misleading. The Pens went 0-2 in the first 2 meetings, but neither Crosby nor Letang were available. With Letang in the lineup, the Penguins actually went 2-1-1 on the year. And while many believed that Crosby’s return put Pittsburgh over the edge, I think Letang is just as valuable to the Pens, assuming Malkin is healthy and in MVP form as he has been all year. Letang is one of the top-5 defencemen in the league, and can do it all – skate, pass, shoot, and hit – and having him the lineup really shores up the back-end.

Conversely, Philadelphia will be without Pronger and Meszaros on the defensive size, as well as Van Riemsdyk up front, and possibly Briere. The fact that Philly still has a chance shows the tremendous depth of their roster, but the skill and experience brought by Pronger and Briere simply can’t be replaced. Yes, the series will be entertaining, and I expect an ebb and flow where each team will look dominant at different points, but in the end I think a healthy Penguins team will outlast an injury-depleted Philly squad.

Top-10 Scorers

Summary of First-Round Picks:

(1) Vancouver versus (8) Los Angeles            Pick Vancouver

(2) St. Louis versus (7) San Jose                      Pick San Jose

(3) Phoenix versus (6) Chicago                        Pick Chicago

(4) Nashville versus (5) Detroit                        Pick Nashville

(1) New York versus (8) Ottawa                       Pick New York

(2) Boston versus (7) Washington                  Pick Boston

(3) Florida versus (6) New Jersey                    Pick New Jersey

(4) Pittsburgh versus (5) Philadelphia           Pick Pittsburgh

Second Round:

(1) Vancouver versus (7) San Jose                  Pick Vancouver

(4) Nashville versus (6) Chicago                     Pick Nashville

(1) New York versus (6) New Jersey              Pick New York

(2) Boston versus (4) Pittsburgh                     Pick Pittsburgh

Third Round:

(1) Vancouver versus (4) Nashville                 Pick Nashville

(1) New York versus (4) Pittsburgh                Pick Pittsburgh

 Final:

(4) Pittsburgh versus (4) Nashville                  Pick Pittsburgh